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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   104-23 (+15)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-14.5 (+09.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.601%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, January 03, 2019
 
 
10-Year treasury yield is at 2.6009, 1.95 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.6204.

US stocks slumped after Apple warned that its revenue outlook would be worse than the previous expectation, adding to ongoing global growth concerns. Treasuries slid along with most European bonds earlier this morning but bounced back after ISM Manufacturing data dropped by the most since 2008. WTI crude gained on confidence OPEC will move forward with its production cuts. In Washington, President Trump and congressional leaders held a meeting yesterday but weren’t able to make tangible progress to end a partial shutdown of the federal government. Tomorrow, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to be interviewed with predecessors Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will also join a panel discussion on long-run macroeconomic performance at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association.

In the economic calendar today, MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 8.50% last week after dropping 1.40% in prior. Both purchases and refinances were down 7.60% and 10.60%, respectively. December ADP employment rose 271k, substantially above expectation of 180k. Initial Jobless Claims came in a bit higher than expectation of 220k at 231k which might be likely due to the ongoing partial government shutdown. Continuing Claims also printed a higher reading of 1740k vs. 1690k consensus and 1708k revised. Lastly, ISM Manufacturing came in at 54.10 vs. 57.50 consensus and 59.30 prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.95 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  12/31 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Dec 15.00 -5.10 17.60 -  
                   
  01/01 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  01/02 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Dec F 53.90 53.80 53.90 -  
                   
  01/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 28 Dec - -8.50% -1.40% -  
                   
  01/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Dec - 35.30% 51.50% -  
                   
  01/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Dec 180k 271k 179k 157k  
                   
  01/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 29 Dec 220k 231k 216k 221k  
                   
  01/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 22 Dec 1690k 1740k 1701k 1708k  
                   
  01/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 30 Dec - 59.60 59.40 -  
                   
  01/03 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Dec 57.50 54.10 59.30 -  
                   
  01/03 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Dec 57.70 54.90 60.70 -  
                   
  01/04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Dec 180k - 155k -  
                   
  01/04 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Dec 3.70% - 3.70% -  
                   
  01/04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Dec 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  01/04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Dec 3.00% - 3.10% -  
                   
  01/04 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Dec - - 62.90% -  
                   
  01/04 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Dec F - - 53.60 -  
                   
  01/04 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Dec F 53.50 - 53.40 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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