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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-00 (-09.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-17.5 (-05.5)  
 
  Support   2.497%  
 
  Resistance   2.310%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, January 04, 2018
 
 
Today’s session opened with Treasuries lower than yesterday. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.481% after closing at 2.448% during the prior session.

Yesterday the Federal Reserve’s FOMC released minutes for its December 12-13 meeting. Median projection for real GDP growth rate during 2018 was slightly revised to 2.50 percent, same as 2017. Unemployment rate is projected to reach 3.90 percent during the fourth quarter of 2018; while inflation, as measured by the PCE index, is projected to remain around 1.90 percent during the year, rising modestly next year. Based on the above, the median projection for 2018 year-end fed funds rate was 2.13 percent.

Meanwhile, the economic calendar continued today with the ADP Employment Report reflecting 250k added jobs in December, beating estimates of 190k and well above its 185k prior revised. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended December 30 came in at 250k, above survey of 240k and slightly over its 247k prior revised; while Continuing Claims for the week ended December 23 came in at 1914k, below survey of 1928k and lower than its 1951k prior revised. Finally, the Markit Services PMI rose to 53.70, exceeding both survey of 52.50 and prior mark of 52.40.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.3 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/01 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  01/02 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Dec F 55.00 55.10 55.00 -  
                   
  01/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Dec - 0.70% -3.50% -  
                   
  01/03 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Nov 0.50% 0.80% 1.40% 0.90%  
                   
  01/03 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Dec 58.20 59.70 58.20 -  
                   
  01/03 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Dec 64.50 69.00 65.50 -  
                   
  01/03 FOMC Meeting Minutes 11:00 13 Dec - - - -  
                   
  01/04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Dec - -3.60% 30.10% -  
                   
  01/04 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Dec 190k 250k 190k 185k  
                   
  01/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Dec 240k 250k 245k 247k  
                   
  01/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Dec 1928k 1914k 1943k 1951k  
                   
  01/04 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Dec F 52.50 53.70 52.40 -  
                   
  01/04 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Dec F - 54.10 53.00 -  
                   
  01/04 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 31 Dec - 51.80 52.40 -  
                   
  01/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Dec 190k - 228k -  
                   
  01/05 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Dec - - 62.70% -  
                   
  01/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Dec 4.10% - 4.10% -  
                   
  01/05 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Dec - - 8.00% -  
                   
  01/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Dec 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  01/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Dec 2.50% - 2.50% -  
                   
  01/05 Trade Balance 05:30 Nov -$50.00b - -$48.70b -  
                   
  01/05 Factory Orders 07:00 Nov 1.10% - -0.10% -  
                   
  01/05 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Nov F - - 1.30% -  
                   
  01/05 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Nov F - - -0.10% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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