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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-11 (-05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-29.5 (-03)  
 
  Support   2.626%  
 
  Resistance   2.314%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, January 12, 2018
 
 
Today’s session opened with Treasuries lower than yesterday. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.565% after closing at 2.538% during the prior session.

Treasuries fell at the open of today’s session as core inflation readings reflected higher than expected levels and Wall Street’s earnings season kicked off with healthy numbers sending stocks roaring and feeding a risk-on environment. Probabilities of a Fed rate hike in March rose to 85% from 79% on the news.

Month-over-month CPI for December rose 0.10%, matching survey but falling below its prior 0.40% mark; while year-over-year CPI for December rose 2.10%, also matching survey and falling slightly below its prior 2.20%. However, month-over-month CPI Ex Food and Energy for December rose 0.30%, exceeding survey of 0.20% and its 0.10% prior; while year-over-year CPI Ex Food and Energy for December rose 1.80%, exceeding survey and prior of 1.70%. Further, month-over-month Retail Sales for December rose 0.40%, falling short of 0.50% survey and 0.90% prior revised; while Business Inventories for November rose 0.40%, matching survey and beating prior 0.00% revised.  

Also today, Fed presidents Harker and Rosengren are scheduled to speak on U.S. economic outlook and the economy in Philadelphia and San Diego respectively.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 2.7 bps from prior closing.

Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/08 Consumer Credit 12:00 Nov $18.000b $27.951b $20.519b $20.532b  
                   
  01/09 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Dec 107.80 104.90 107.50 -  
                   
  01/09 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Nov 6025 5879 5996 5925  
                   
  01/10 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 5 Jan - 8.30% 0.70% -1.60%  
                   
  01/10 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Dec 0.40% 0.10% 0.70% 0.80%  
                   
  01/10 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Dec 3.10% 3.00% 3.10% 3.30%  
                   
  01/10 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Dec 0.30% -0.10% 0.50% -  
                   
  01/10 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Dec - 2.60% 3.10% -  
                   
  01/10 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Nov 0.60% 1.50% 0.70% 0.80%  
                   
  01/10 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Nov F 0.70% 0.80% 0.70% -  
                   
  01/11 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% -0.10% 0.40% -  
                   
  01/11 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Dec 3.00% 2.60% 3.10% -  
                   
  01/11 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 6 Jan 245k 261k 250k -  
                   
  01/11 Continuing Claims 05:30 30 Dec 1920k 1867k 1914k 1902k  
                   
  01/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 7 Jan - 53.50 51.80 -  
                   
  01/11 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Dec -$26.00b -$23.20b -$27.30b -  
                   
  01/12 CPI MoM 05:30 Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.40% -  
                   
  01/12 CPI YoY 05:30 Dec 2.10% 2.10% 2.20% -  
                   
  01/12 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Dec 0.50% 0.40% 0.80% 0.90%  
                   
  01/12 Business Inventories 07:00 Nov 0.40% 0.40% -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
 
 
 
 
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