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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-19 (0.00)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-31 (+01.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.543%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries remaining steady across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7005, 0.19 bp decreased from prior closing of 2.7024.

Asian stocks gained overnight after senior Chinese officials promised a potential stimulus but the boost was proven unsustainable as US equity futures trimmed gains this morning. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo also delivered disappointing results, following Citigroup missing its revenue expectation yesterday. Investors’ main focus for the remainder of the week will be on corporate earnings as the results season gets underway. In Washington, the dispute over the border wall is still in a stalemate and the ongoing government shutdown keeps renewing the record of the longest lapse in federal funding. Elsewhere, WTI crude erased some of its loss from yesterday this morning.

The Empire Manufacturing index slumped to 3.90, the lowest since May 2017, vs. survey of 10.00 and upwardly revised prior of 11.50, adding to signs of a slowing economy. The headline PPI in December fell 0.20% from a 0.10% increase in November, and the core PPI slipped significantly more to 0.10% decline from a 0.3% increase prior. However, both the headline and the core YoY remained the same from prior readings of 2.50% and 2.70%, respectively. Dallas Fed President Kaplan is scheduled to speak to the Plano Chamber of Commerce in Texas at 10 AM (PT), and Kansas City Fed President George will give a speech on the economic and monetary policy outlook also at 10 AM (PT) today.

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 0.19 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/14 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  01/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jan 10.00 3.90 10.90 11.50  
                   
  01/15 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Dec -0.10% -0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  01/15 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Dec 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% -  
                   
  01/16 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 11 Jan - - 23.50% -
                 
  01/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Dec -1.30% - -1.60% -
                 
  01/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Dec -0.80% - 0.70% -
                 
  01/16 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Dec -0.70% - -0.90% -
                 
  01/16 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Dec - - 1.80% -
                   
  01/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jan 56.00 - 56.00 -  
                   
  01/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Dec 1253k - 1256k -  
                   
  01/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Dec -0.20% - 3.20% -  
                   
  01/17 Building Permits 05:30 Dec 1290k - 1328k -  
                   
  01/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Dec -2.90% - 5.00% -  
                   
  01/17 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 12 Jan 220k - 216k -  
                   
  01/17 Continuing Claims 05:30 5 Jan - - 1722k -  
                   
  01/17 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jan 10.00 - 9.40 9.10  
                   
  01/17 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 13 Jan - - 58.50 -  
                   
  01/18 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Dec 78.50% - 78.50% -  
                   
  01/18 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan P 96.80 - 98.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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