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Market Commentary



 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-13 (-08.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-31 (00)  
 
  Support   2.784%  
 
  Resistance   1.721%  
 
 
 
 
  Thursday, January 16, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Climb as Stocks Hit All Time Highs

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.7987, 1.57 bps increased from prior closing of 1.7830.

US stocks opened at all-time highs in the wake of the phase one trade deal signed yesterday between the US and China. With the trade war being considered as on hold, investors were seeking fresh catalysts this morning. Investor sentiment got boosted by solid earnings report from Morgan Stanley, leading the company’s shares to jump more than 6% in the premarket. Approximately 7% of the S&P 500 companies reported their quarterly earnings thus far and 76.5% of them have reported better-than-expected results. Treasuries tumbled after strong retail sales data in December was posted. Elsewhere, WTI crude fluctuated in a narrow range, trading slightly above $58 a barrel this morning.

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook index in January surged to 17.00 from an upwardly revised prior of 2.40 vs. 3.80 consensus. Import Price Index in December came in line with consensus of 0.30% and Retail Sales in December also met the expectation of 0.30%. The core excluding auto, however, edged higher to 0.70% vs. 0.50% consensus. Initial Jobless Claims also continued to display strength in current American economic health, printing only 204k vs. 214k prior and 218k consensus. Continuing Claims declined to 1767k from an upwardly revised prior of 1804k as well. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index edged higher to 66.00 from 65.10 prior and lastly, NAHB housing Market Index declined to 75 from 76 prior vs. 74 consensus. Later today, the US Treasury is scheduled to auction off 4-week bills and 8-week bills at 8:30 AM (PT).

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 1.57 bps.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/13 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Dec -$15.00b -13.30b -$13.50b -  
                   
  01/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Dec 104.60 102.70 104.70 -  
                   
  01/14 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 05:30 Dec - 0.00% 1.10% 0.80%  
                   
  01/14 CPI MoM 05:30 Dec 0.30% 0.20% 0.30% -  
                   
  01/14 CPI YoY 05:30 Dec 2.40% 2.30% 2.10% -  
                   
  01/14 CPI Index NSA 05:30 Dec 257.169 256.974 257.208 -  
                   
  01/14 CPI Core Index SA 05:30 Dec 266.111 265.921 265.620 -  
                   
  01/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 10 Jan - 30.20% 13.50% -  
                   
  01/15 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  01/15 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Dec 1.30% 1.30% 1.10% -  
                   
  01/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jan 3.60 4.80 3.50 3.30  
                   
  01/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 Jan 218k 204k 214k -  
                   
  01/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 Jan 1750k 1767k 1803k 1804k  
                   
  01/16 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Dec 0.30% 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  01/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Dec 0.30% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  01/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Dec 0.50% 0.50% -1.30% -  
                   
  01/16 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% -0.20% 0.20% -  
                   
  01/16 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Dec - -0.70% -1.30% -1.20%  
                   
  01/17 Building Permits 05:30 Dec 1460k - 1482k 1482k  
                   
  01/17 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Dec -1.50% - 1.40% 1.40%  
                   
  01/17 Housing Starts 05:30 Dec 1380k - 1365k -  
                   
  01/17 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Dec 1.10% - 3.20% -  
                   
  01/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Dec 77.10% - 77.30% -  
                   
  01/17 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan P 99.30 - 99.30 -  
                   
  01/17 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Nov 7255 - 7267 -
                   
 
 
 
 
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