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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   96-29 (-06)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-18.5 (-04)  
 
  Support   2.626%  
 
  Resistance   2.342%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, January 18, 2018
 
 
Today’s session opened with Treasuries lower than yesterday. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.602% after closing at 2.591% during the prior session.

The yield on the 10-Year Treasury rose above 2.60% at the opening of today’s session as expectations grew that U.S. Congress will reach a deal on a spending bill to avoid a federal government shutdown before Friday and as Apple Inc. reported having a $38 Billion tax liability that may require large amounts of treasury liquidations to cover. The news caused a sell-off that sent prices on the 10-Year note to its lowest levels since March 2017.

The economic calendar features today month-over-month Housing Starts for December declining by 8.20%, versus estimates of -1.70% and a prior mark of 3.00% revised; while Housing Starts for December declined to 1192k, below estimates of 1275k and prior 1299k revised. Also in today, month-over-month Building Permits for December fell by 0.10%, above estimates of -0.60% and prior -1.00% revised; while Building Permits for December reached 1302k, above survey of 1295k but slightly below prior mark of 1303k revised. Further, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 13 dropped to 220k, below estimated 249k and prior mark of 261k; while Continuing Claims for the week ended January 6 registered 1952k, above estimates of 1900k and a prior mark of 1876k revised.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 1.1 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/15 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  01/16 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jan 19.00 17.70 18.00 19.60  
                   
  01/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 12 Jan - 4.10% 8.30% -  
                   
  01/17 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Dec 0.50% 0.90% 0.20% -0.10%  
                   
  01/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Dec 77.40% 77.90% 77.10% 77.20%  
                   
  01/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Jan 72.00 72.00 74.00 -  
                   
  01/17 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  01/17 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Nov - $33.80b $151.20b $152.90b  
                   
  01/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Nov - $57.50b $23.20b $26.20b  
                   
  01/18 Building Permits 05:30 Dec 1295K 1302K 1298k 1303k  
                   
  01/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Dec -0.60% -0.10% -1.40% -1.00%  
                   
  01/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Dec 1275k 1192k 1297k 1299k  
                   
  01/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Dec -1.70% -8.20% 3.30% 3.00%  
                   
  01/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jan 25.00 22.20 26.20 27.90  
                   
  01/18 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 13 Jan 249k 220k 261K -  
                   
  01/18 Continuing Claims 05:30 6 Jan 1900k 1952k 1867K 1876k  
                   
  01/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 14 Jan - 53.80 53.50 -  
                   
  01/19 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan P 97.00 - 95.90 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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