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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-0.5 (-06)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-23.5 (-02.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.543%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, January 18, 2019
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7698, 1.94 bps increased from prior closing of 2.7504.

Stocks edged higher amid growing optimism for the trade talks and haven assets declined. WTI crude extended its gain toward $53 a barrel. As the partial government shutdown entered its 28th day, prospects for breaking the impasse seem even lower now after President Trump denied House Speaker Pelosi a military plane for an unannounced trip to Afghanistan to visit US troops. President Trump also cancelled the US delegation’s trip to the global economic summit in Davos. Many analysts now expect this ongoing shutdown to drag on through February. The political standoff also continued in the UK as they gained no progress on the Brexit deal with only about 10 weeks out until the country is due to exit the EU.

Industrial Production in December came in slightly above estimate of 0.20% at 0.30%, a 0.10% decline from 0.40% revised prior. Capacity Utilization also printed a reading above expectation at 78.70% vs. 78.50% consensus and 78.60% revised prior. US Manufacturing Production increased in December by the most in 10 months to 1.10% vs. 0.30% survey. Lastly, US Consumer Sentiment tumbled to the lowest since October 2016 to 90.70 amid the ongoing shutdown vs. 96.80 survey and 98.30 prior.

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 1.94 bps.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/14 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  01/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Jan 10.00 3.90 10.90 11.50  
                   
  01/15 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Dec -0.10% -0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  01/15 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Dec 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% -  
                   
  01/16 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 11 Jan - 13.50% 23.50% -
                 
  01/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Dec -1.30% -1.00% -1.60% -1.90%
                 
  01/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Dec -0.80% -0.60% 0.70% 0.50%
                 
  01/16 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Dec -0.70% -0.60% -0.90% -0.80%
                 
  01/16 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Dec - 1.10% 1.80% -
                   
  01/17 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 12 Jan 220k 213k 216k -  
                   
  01/17 Continuing Claims 05:30 5 Jan 1734K 1737k 1722k 1719k  
                   
  01/17 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Jan 9.50 17.00 9.40 9.10  
                   
  01/17 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 13 Jan - 58.10 58.50 -  
                   
  01/18 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Dec 78.50% 78.70% 78.50% 78.60%  
                   
  01/18 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan P 96.80 90.70 98.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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