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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-14.5 (+08)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-25 (+03.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.543%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, January 24, 2019
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7157, 2.52 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.7409.

Stocks struggled early this morning from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’s comments on the trade negotiations being “miles and miles” away from striking a deal, leaving outlook of the relationship between the two countries a little dimmer. Safe haven gained traction, especially after the jobless claims data posting unusually low readings. Main focus for the remainder of the day will be the Senate votes on two measures which could end the shutdown but are not expected to break the record impasse. With the battle between President Trump and House Speaker Pelosi becoming more ferocious, federal employees are set to miss their second paychecks tomorrow. Elsewhere, WTI oil fell toward $52 per barrel this morning.

Initial Jobless Claims fell to the lowest since November 1969 at 199k from a downwardly revised prior of 212k. Continuing claims also declined to 1713k from 1737k prior vs. 1730k consensus. Not many furloughed federal employees filed for the claims which made these surprisingly strong claims data possible. However, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort slumped to the lowest in almost seven months at 57.40 vs. 58.10 prior amid the ongoing government shutdown. Markit US Manufacturing PMI exceeded estimated of 53.50 at 54.90 and Leading Index came in line with consensus of -0.10% which was a 0.30% decline from 0.20% prior.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 2.52 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/21 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  01/22 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Dec 5.24m 4.99m 5.32m 5.33m  
                   
  01/22 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec -1.50% -6.40% 1.90% 2.10%  
                   
  01/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 18 Jan - -2.70% 13.50% -
                 
  01/23 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Nov 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  01/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jan -2.00 -2.00 -8.00 -  
                   
  01/24 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 19 Jan 218k - 213k -  
                   
  01/24 Continuing Claims 05:30 12 Jan 1730k - 1737k -  
                   
  01/24 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 20 Jan - - 58.10 -  
                   
  01/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan P - - 54.40 -  
                   
  01/24 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan P 53.50 - 53.80 -  
                   
  01/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan P 54.00 - 54.40 -  
                   
  01/24 Leading Index 07:00 Dec -0.10% - 0.20% -  
                   
  01/24 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Jan 3.00 - 3.00 -  
                   
  01/25 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Dec P 1.50% - - -  
                   
  01/25 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Dec P 0.20% - - -  
                   
  01/25 New Home Sales 07:00 Dec 572k - - -  
                   
  01/25 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 5.10% - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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