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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   102-05 (-01) 2.006%  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   104-11 (+0.5)  
 
  Support   2.260%  
 
  Resistance   1.930%  
 
 
 
 
Today's Blurb Thursday, January 28, 2016
 
 
       Initial Jobless Claims fell by 16K to 278K from 294K prior (revised) to mark the 47th consecutive week of claims below 300K, an encouraging sign for the labor market. The four-week average for claims fell to 283,000 from 285,250 prior. Continuing Claims rose 49K to 2268K from 2219K prior. Durable Goods Orders slumped 5.10% (consensus -0.70%) in December, while excluding transportation fell only 1.20%. The decline in the headline Durable Goods number was led by a 29.40% decline in Boeing orders which weighed on nondefense aircraft orders. Pending Home Sales edged up 0.10% (consensus +0.90%) in December and November was revised down from -0.90% to -1.10%. Yesterday the FOMC chose to keep the Fed funds rate steady in the 25-50 bps range. Their statement showed the committee recognizes an economic slow down during the late part of 2015, downward inflationary pressures from declining energy prices, and global financial volatility abroad. The committee also noted that labor market conditions improved further since their last meeting in 2015. There were no hints of the timing of another rate hike, however the committee stands by its promise to be gradual, and largely data dependent, in determining the path of future policy. Treasuries are hovering just below yesterday’s 2:00 PM (PT) close and the curve is steeper with 2s10s up 2.4 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/25 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 06:30 Jan -14.00 -34.60 -20.10 -21.60  
                   
  01/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Nov   0.50% 0.50%   0.50% -  
                   
  01/26 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI MoM 06:00 Nov - 0.87%   0.88% -  
                   
  01/26 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan P 54.00 53.70 54.30 -  
                   
  01/26 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan P   - 53.70  54.00 -  
                   
  01/26 Consumer Confidence Index 07:00 Jan 96.50 98.10 96.50 96.30  
                   
  01/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Jan 2.00 2.00   6.00 -  
                   
  01/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Jan   -   8.80%   9.00% -  
                   
  01/27 New Home Sales 07:00 Dec   500K 544K   490K 491K  
                   
  01/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Jan   281K 278K   293K 294K  
                   
  01/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Jan  2218K 2268K  2208K 2219K  
                   
  01/28   Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Dec P  -0.70% -5.10%   0.00% -0.50%  
                   
  01/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Jan - 44.60 44.00 -  
                   
  01/28 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Jan -10.00 - -9.00 -  
                   
  01/29 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q A     0.80% - 2.00% -  
                   
  01/29 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q A     1.80% - 3.00% -  
                   
  01/29 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q A - - 1.30% -  
                   
  01/29 ISM Milwaukee 06:00 Jan - - - -  
                   
  01/29 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan F - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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