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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-10 (+06)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-23 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.543%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, January 28, 2019
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7422, 1.63 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.7585.

US equity futures started this eventful week in the red as investors digested weaker than expected earnings from Caterpillar and lowered revenue outlook from Nvidia Inc. Treasuries started rallying and WTI oil fell below $53 a barrel. Last Friday, President Trump signed legislation to temporarily end the record long shutdown which will fund the government until Feb. 15th. However, he made it very clear that his agreement to end the shutdown was not a concession but to take care of people who were negatively affected by it, and he is willing to close the government again. Elsewhere, another round of trade talks between the US and China will take place from Wednesday through Thursday, and the two-day FOMC meeting will kick off tomorrow with the rate decision to be released on Wednesday, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Powell. In addition to the week’s busy calendar, the corporate earnings season continues which will be highlighted by some of the biggest technology companies including Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Tesla, Samsung, and Sony.

December Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to 0.27 from a downwardly revised prior of 0.21. 46 of the 85 monthly indicators made positive contributions while 39 were negative. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity also increased to 1.00 from -5.10 prior vs. -2.70 consensus. The US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $41 Billion of 5-Year notes at 10:00 AM (PT) today.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.63 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/28 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Dec - 0.27 0.22 0.21  
                   
  01/28 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jan -2.70 1.00 -5.10 -  
                   
  01/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 4.85% - 5.03% -  
                   
  01/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Nov 0.40% - 0.41% -  
                   
  01/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 25 Jan - - -2.70% -
                 
  01/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 185k - 271k -  
                   
  01/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q A 2.60% - 3.40% -  
                   
  01/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q A - - 1.60% -  
                   
  01/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q A 3.80% - 3.50% -  
                   
  01/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q A 1.70% - 1.80% -  
                   
  01/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 0.50% - -0.70% -  
                   
  01/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Dec - - -7.70% -  
                   
  01/30 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 30 Jan 2.50% - 2.50% -  
                   
  01/30 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 30 Jan 2.25% - 2.25% -  
                   
  01/31 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - - 35.30% -  
                   
  01/31 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.50% - 0.20% -  
                   
  01/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  01/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.00% - 0.10% -  
                   
  01/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% - 1.80% -  
                   
  01/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  01/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.90% - 1.90% -  
                   
  01/31 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 Jan 215k - 199k -  
                   
  01/31 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 Jan 1725k - 1713k -  
                   
  02/01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 165k - 312k -  
                   
  02/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 3.90% - 3.90% -  
                   
  02/01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  02/01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 3.20% - 3.20% -  
                   
  02/01 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - - 63.10% -  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan P 54.80 - 54.90 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.20% - - -  
                   
  02/01 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan F 90.70 - 90.70 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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