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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   96-0.5 (-15)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-29.5 (-11)  
 
  Support   2.712%  
 
  Resistance   2.387%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, January 29, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower than Friday at the opening of today’s session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.706% after closing at 2.661% during the prior session.

Last week’s treasury sell-off extended into the opening of today’s session pushing yields once again to levels not seen since early 2014. The news came amid the start of a busy week for the economic calendar, which kicked off today with month-over-month U.S. Personal Income for December rising 0.40%, versus survey of 0.30% and prior mark also of 0.30%. Also in today, month-over-month Personal Spending for December rose 0.40%, matching survey of 0.40% but falling from its previous 0.80% revised; while month-over-month Real Personal Spending for December rose 0.30%, slightly below survey of 0.40% and dropping from its previous 0.50% revised. Finally, month-over-month Core PCE for December rose 0.20%, matching survey and slightly rising above its previous mark of 0.10%; while year-over-year Core PCE for December rose 1.50%, matching both survey and prior mark.

The market’s attention this week will center around the President’s state of the union address to Congress tomorrow and the FOMC meetings scheduled for tomorrow and Wednesday, with possible rate increase announcements on Wednesday. 

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 4.5 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/29 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  01/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.40% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80%  
                   
  01/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.70% 1.80% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -  
                   
  01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Nov 0.60% - 0.70% -  
                   
  01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 6.30% - 6.38% -  
                   
  01/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Jan - - 4.50% -  
                   
  01/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 180k - 250k -  
                   
  01/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 4Q 0.60% - 0.70% -  
                   
  01/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 0.50% - 0.20% -  
                   
  01/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Dec - - 0.60% -  
                   
  01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 31 Jan 1.50% - 1.50% -  
                   
  01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 31 Jan 1.25% - 1.25% -  
                   
  02/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - - -3.60% -  
                   
  02/01 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P 1.10% - 3.00% -  
                   
  02/01 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 4Q P 1.00% - -0.20% -  
                   
  02/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Jan 236k - 233k -  
                   
  02/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Jan 1925k - 1937k -  
                   
  02/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Jan - - 53.70 -  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 55.50 - 55.50 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.40% - 0.80% -  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 58.60 - 59.70 59.30  
                   
  02/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jan - - 69.00 -  
                   
  02/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 180k - 148k -  
                   
  02/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 4.10% - 4.10% -  
                   
  02/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.30% -  
                   
  02/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 2.60% - 2.50% -  
                   
  02/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - - 62.70% -  
                   
  02/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec 0.90% - 1.30% -  
                   
  02/02 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan F 95.00 - 94.40 -  
                   
  02/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - - 2.90% -  
                   
  02/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - - 0.60% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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