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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-12.5 (+05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-28 (+04)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.543%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching higher across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7277, 1.63 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.7440.

US equity futures advanced this morning as investors weighed the latest batch of corporate earnings. Many companies including 3M, Pfitzer, Allergan, and Verizon posted stronger-than-forecast profits. Investors are also attuned to the latest developments on the trade front. The US prosecutors filed criminal charges against Huawei, China’s biggest telecom company, a day before the trade talks between the two countries are scheduled to begin, which may put a damper on the mood for the meetings. In the UK, Prime Minister May faces two votes in Parliament; one to put Brexit on hold and the other to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement. Treasuries also edged slightly higher after the data indicated home prices rose at the slowest pace in almost 4 years.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index increased 4.68% in November YoY from a revised prior of 5.02%. MoM change was a 0.30% increase vs. 0.42% revised prior and 0.40% consensus. The data further underscored a deceleration in the housing market as indicated by recent housing market data. Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell to 120.20 in January vs. a downwardly revised prior of 126.60 and 124.00 estimate. The two-day FOMC meeting will kick off today with the rate decision to be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM (PT), followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Powell. The US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $32 Billion of 7-Year notes at 10:00 AM (PT) today.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.63 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/28 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Dec - 0.27 0.22 0.21  
                   
  01/28 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jan -2.70 1.00 -5.10 -  
                   
  01/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 4.89% 4.68% 5.03% 5.02%  
                   
  01/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Nov 0.40% 0.30% 0.41% 0.42%  
                   
  01/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 25 Jan - - -2.70% -
                 
  01/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 183k - 271k -  
                   
  01/30 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q A 2.60% - 3.40% -  
                   
  01/30 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q A - - 1.60% -  
                   
  01/30 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q A 3.80% - 3.50% -  
                   
  01/30 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q A 1.70% - 1.80% -  
                   
  01/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 0.50% - -0.70% -  
                   
  01/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Dec - - -7.70% -  
                   
  01/30 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 30 Jan 2.50% - 2.50% -  
                   
  01/30 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 30 Jan 2.25% - 2.25% -  
                   
  01/31 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - - 35.30% -  
                   
  01/31 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.50% - 0.20% -  
                   
  01/31 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  01/31 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.00% - 0.10% -  
                   
  01/31 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% - 1.80% -  
                   
  01/31 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  01/31 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.90% - 1.90% -  
                   
  01/31 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 Jan 215k - 199k -  
                   
  01/31 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 Jan 1725k - 1713k -  
                   
  02/01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 165k - 312k -  
                   
  02/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 3.90% - 3.90% -  
                   
  02/01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  02/01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 3.20% - 3.20% -  
                   
  02/01 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - - 63.10% -  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan P 54.80 - 54.90 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.20% - - -  
                   
  02/01 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan F 90.70 - 90.70 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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