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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   95-25 (-0.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-01.5 (+0.5)  
 
  Support   2.551%  
 
  Resistance   2.382%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, January 30, 2017
 
 
The market opened with treasuries nearly unchanged from Friday’s close despite the newly announced U.S. immigration policies over the weekend. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.486% after closing at 2.484% prior.

December’s Personal Income report showed a 0.30% MoM growth in income, which was slightly below expectations of a 0.40% increase, while Personal Spending for December rose 0.50% versus a 0.20% increase prior. The PCE Deflator MoM and the Core PCE Deflator MoM both came in as expected, rising 0.20% and 0.10% respectively in December.

The remainder of this week’s economic calendar consists of heavy data, which includes Tuesday’s Employment Cost Index and Chicago Purchasing Manager, Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing, Thursday’s Initial and Continuing Claims, and the release of January’s jobs report on Friday. Additionally, the first FOMC meeting of the year begins tomorrow. The market does not expect a rate change at the end of this two-day meeting, but the tone of the FOMC Statement could move the probabilities of a March rate hike higher.

The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year up 0.2 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/30 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.40% 0.30% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  01/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.20% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  01/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.60% 1.40% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.70% 1.60% 1.70%  
                   
  01/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 1.00% 1.60% -2.50% -  
                   
  01/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jan 15.00 - 15.50 -  
                   
  01/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 4Q 0.60% - 0.60% -  
                   
  01/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 5.00% - 5.10% -  
                   
  01/31 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 06:00 Nov - - 5.61% -  
                   
  02/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Jan - - 4.00% -  
                   
  02/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 167K - 153K -  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 55.10 - 55.10 -  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 55.00 - 54.70 54.50  
                   
  02/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jan 65.50 - 65.50 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.20% - 0.90% -  
                   
  02/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 Feb 0.75% - 0.75% -  
                   
  02/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 Feb 0.50% - 0.50% -  
                   
  02/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - - 42.40% -  
                   
  02/02 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P 1.00% - 3.10% -  
                   
  02/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Jan 250K - 259K -  
                   
  02/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Jan 2063K - 2100K -  
                   
  02/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Jan - - 45.20 -  
                   
  02/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 175K - 156K -  
                   
  02/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 4.70% - 4.70% -  
                   
  02/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 2.80% - 2.90% -  
                   
  02/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - - 62.70% -  
                   
  02/03 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Jan - - 9.20% -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan F - - 55.10 -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan F - - 55.40 -  
                   
  02/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec 0.80% - -2.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - - -0.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - - 0.50% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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