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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   96-03 (-02)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-00 (-02)  
 
  Support   2.725%  
 
  Resistance   2.405%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower than yesterday at the opening of today’s session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.725% after closing at 2.695% during the prior session.

The yield on the 10-Year note reached another recent high at the start of today’s session when it breached 2.70%, following a year of stock market records, solid corporate earnings and the tax overhaul by the Trump administration.  

Meanwhile on the economic calendar today, the S&P Case Schiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose during November to 204.21; from prior mark of 203.71 revised, signaling to the largest increase in real estate prices in twenty U.S. cities in more than three years. Further, month-over-month S&P Case Schiller Composite for November reflected an increase of 0.75%, above survey of 0.60% and up from its prior 0.70% mark; while year-over-year change for the Composite during November registered a 6.41% increase, versus survey of 6.30% and a prior mark of 6.32% revised.  The S&P National Home Price Index for November rose to 195.94 from 195.48 prior revised; while year-over-year change for the same Index during November rose by 6.21% versus a prior 6.10% revised. Finally, Consumer Confidence for January rose to 125.40, versus survey of 123.00 and above its prior mark of 123.10 revised.

The President’s state of the union address to Congress is scheduled for 6:00 PM (PT) today and should provide some policy direction on infrastructure, immigration and overall budgetary spending. Also, the Fed’s FOMC will meet today and tomorrow; and a potential decision to increase interest rates would be revealed tomorrow

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.0 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/29 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  01/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.40% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80%  
                   
  01/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.70% 1.80% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -  
                   
  01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Nov 0.60% 0.75% 0.70% -  
                   
  01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 6.30% 6.41% 6.38% 6.32%  
                   
  01/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Jan - - 4.50% -  
                   
  01/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 183k - 250k -  
                   
  01/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 4Q 0.60% - 0.70% -  
                   
  01/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 0.50% - 0.20% -  
                   
  01/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Dec 2.70% - 0.60% -  
                   
  01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 31 Jan 1.50% - 1.50% -  
                   
  01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 31 Jan 1.25% - 1.25% -  
                   
  02/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - - -3.60% -  
                   
  02/01 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P 0.80% - 3.00% -  
                   
  02/01 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 4Q P 0.90% - -0.20% -  
                   
  02/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Jan 235k - 233k -  
                   
  02/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Jan 1929k - 1937k -  
                   
  02/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Jan - - 53.70 -  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 55.50 - 55.50 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.40% - 0.80% -  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 58.60 - 59.70 59.30  
                   
  02/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jan 68.80 - 69.00 -  
                   
  02/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 180k - 148k -  
                   
  02/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 4.10% - 4.10% -  
                   
  02/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  02/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 2.60% - 2.50% -  
                   
  02/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - - 62.70% -  
                   
  02/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec 1.50% - 1.30% -  
                   
  02/02 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan F 95.00 - 94.40 -  
                   
  02/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - - 2.90% -  
                   
  02/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - - 0.60% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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