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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   96-04.5 (+12)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-07.5 (+07.5)  
 
  Support   2.551%  
 
  Resistance   2.382%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, January 31, 2017
 
 
The market opened with treasuries moderately higher across the curve. The UST 10-Year yield is currently at 2.444% after closing at 2.488% prior.

The Employment Cost index rose 0.50% in the 4th quarter following a 0.60% rise in each of the prior three quarters of 2016, slightly below expectations and brings the YoY rate of total employment cost down from 2.30% to 2.20%. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index rose 5.27% YoY for the three month period ending in November, an increase from the 5.10% rise notched in October.

The Chicago PMI for January came in below expectations at 50.30 versus 55.00 consensus, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence slipped to 111.80 in January from 113.70 in December.‚Äč The two-day FOMC meeting begins today, but the market will be more focused on the statement following the conclusion of the meeting tomorrow.

The curve has bull-steepened with the UST 10-Year down 4.4 bps from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/30 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.40% 0.30% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  01/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.20% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  01/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.60% 1.40% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.70% 1.60% 1.70%  
                   
  01/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 1.00% 1.60% -2.50% -  
                   
  01/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jan 15.00 22.10 15.50 17.70  
                   
  01/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 4Q 0.60% 0.50% 0.60% -  
                   
  01/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 5.03% 5.27% 5.10% 5.09%  
                   
  01/31 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 06:00 Nov - 5.64% 5.61% 5.46%  
                   
  02/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Jan - - 4.00% -  
                   
  02/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 168K - 153K -  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 55.10 - 55.10 -  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 55.00 - 54.70 54.50  
                   
  02/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jan 65.50 - 65.50 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.20% - 0.90% -  
                   
  02/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 Feb 0.75% - 0.75% -  
                   
  02/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 Feb 0.50% - 0.50% -  
                   
  02/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - - 42.40% -  
                   
  02/02 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P 1.00% - 3.10% -  
                   
  02/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Jan 250K - 259K -  
                   
  02/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Jan 2063K - 2100K -  
                   
  02/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Jan - - 45.20 -  
                   
  02/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 175K - 156K -  
                   
  02/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 4.70% - 4.70% -  
                   
  02/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 2.80% - 2.90% -  
                   
  02/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - - 62.70% -  
                   
  02/03 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Jan - - 9.20% -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan F - - 55.10 -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan F - - 55.40 -  
                   
  02/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec 0.80% - -2.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - - -0.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - - 0.50% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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