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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   96-00 (+01.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-31.5 (+01.5)  
 
  Support   2.720%  
 
  Resistance   2.405%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher than yesterday at the opening of today’s session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.715% after closing at 2.721% during the prior session.

Prices on the 10-Year note stabilized and inched slightly higher following an announcement by the Treasury Department; which indicated it plans to elevate the size of longer-term debt issuance in response to expectations of growing deficits and a shrinking Federal Reserve balance sheet

The economic calendar today features MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended on January 26 dropping by 2.60% versus its prior mark of 4.50%; while ADP Employments Change for January reached 234k, exceeding survey of 185k but below its prior of 242k revised. Also in today, quarter-over-quarter Employment Cost Index for the 4Q reflected a 0.60% change, matching estimates and dropping slightly from its previous mark of 0.70%. Further, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January came in at 65.70, above survey of 64.00 but below prior 67.80 revised. Finally, month-over-month Pending Home Sales for December rose 0.50%, matching survey and rising above its prior 0.30% revised; while year-over-year Pending Home Sales for December dropped 1.80%, below survey of 1.70% and prior mark of 0.60%.

Risk assets received a boost today following the President’s state of the union address to Congress last night, after underscoring plans for large investments in the nation’s infrastructure among others; while the Fed’s FOMC is scheduled to announce their decision on possible changes to short-term interest rates at 11:00 AM (PT) today. 

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 0.6 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/29 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  01/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.40% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80%  
                   
  01/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.70% 1.80% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -  
                   
  01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Nov 0.60% 0.75% 0.70% -  
                   
  01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 6.30% 6.41% 6.38% 6.32%  
                   
  01/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Jan - -2.60% 4.50% -  
                   
  01/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 185k 234k 250k 242k  
                   
  01/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 4Q 0.60% 0.60% 0.70% -  
                   
  01/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  01/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Dec 1.70% -1.80% 0.60% -  
                   
  01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 31 Jan 1.50% - 1.50% -  
                   
  01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 31 Jan 1.25% - 1.25% -  
                   
  02/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - - -3.60% -  
                   
  02/01 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P 0.70% - 3.00% -  
                   
  02/01 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 4Q P 0.90% - -0.20% -  
                   
  02/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Jan 235k - 233k -  
                   
  02/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Jan 1929k - 1937k -  
                   
  02/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Jan - - 53.70 -  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 55.50 - 55.50 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.40% - 0.80% -  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 58.60 - 59.70 59.30  
                   
  02/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jan 68.80 - 69.00 -  
                   
  02/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 180k - 148k -  
                   
  02/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 4.10% - 4.10% -  
                   
  02/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  02/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 2.60% - 2.50% -  
                   
  02/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - - 62.70% -  
                   
  02/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec 1.50% - 1.30% -  
                   
  02/02 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan F 95.00 - 94.40 -  
                   
  02/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - - 2.90% -  
                   
  02/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - - 0.60% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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