Back to top

Market Commentary

Home
Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   104-02.5 (+08)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-14.5 (+07)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.543%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, January 31, 2019
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.6471, 3.04 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.6775.

US equity futures pointed to a mixed start as investors digested corporate earnings and the Fed’s dovish stance from the statement and conference from yesterday. GE came in lower than expected on their earnings but still rallied as revenue topped estimates, and Facebook also surged on strong revenue. However, both Microsoft and Tesla dipped after reporting quarterly results. Amazon which is scheduled to post results after the bell will be the one to watch today. Yesterday, the Fed kept the rates on hold as expected and signaled flexibility on its balance sheet normalization. Treasuries sharply rallied yesterday after the announcement and extended gain today as well. In Washington, as the trade negotiations wrap up, President Trump tweeted positive remarks on the meeting but also said that no final deal will be made until he meets with Chinese President Xi in the near future.

The fourth quarter Employment Cost Index fell to 0.70% from 0.80% prior vs. 0.80% estimate. Largely affected by the government shutdown, Initial Jobless Claims surged to 253k from an upwardly revised prior of 200k vs. 215k consensus, and Continuing Claims also jumped to 1782k from 1713k prior vs. 1721k consensus. Following the historic low reading from the last week on Initial Claims, this week’s claims data were particularly more disappointing which have driven treasuries up early this morning. Chicago Purchasing Manager report printed 56.70 vs. consensus of 61.50 and a downwardly revised prior of 63.80. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort came in unchanged from prior at 57.40. Lastly, New Home Sales surprisingly came in well above consensus of 570k at 657k as opposed to recent data indicating a slowdown in housing market.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 3.04 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/28 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Dec - 0.27 0.22 0.21  
                   
  01/28 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jan -2.70 1.00 -5.10 -  
                   
  01/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 4.89% 4.68% 5.03% 5.02%  
                   
  01/29 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Nov 0.40% 0.30% 0.41% 0.42%  
                   
  01/30 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 25 Jan - -3.00% -2.70% -
                 
  01/30 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 181k 213k 271k 263k  
                   
  01/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 0.50% -2.20% -0.70% -0.90%  
                   
  01/30 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Dec -7.00% -9.50% -7.70% -7.80%  
                   
  01/30 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 30 Jan 2.50% - 2.50% -  
                   
  01/30 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 30 Jan 2.25% - 2.25% -  
                   
  01/31 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - 18.70% 35.30% -  
                   
  01/31 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 26 Jan 215k 253k 199k 200k  
                   
  01/31 Continuing Claims 05:30 19 Jan 1721k 1782k 1713k -  
                   
  01/31 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 27 Jan - 57.40 57.40 -  
                   
  02/01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 165k - 312k -  
                   
  02/01 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 3.90% - 3.90% -  
                   
  02/01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  02/01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 3.20% - 3.20% -  
                   
  02/01 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan 63.00% - 63.10% -  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan P 54.80 - 54.90 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.20% - - -  
                   
  02/01 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan F 90.70 - 90.70 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
Helpful Links
  Visit Us Online   Submit Loan  
  Get Approved   SeeMyLoanStatusTM  
  Download Rate Sheet   Conventional Program Guidelines  
  Price & Lock   Government Program Guidelines  
 
 
   
 
  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
©2019 Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved