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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   95-18 (-13)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-24.5 (-09)  
 
  Support   2.551%  
 
  Resistance   2.386%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, February 01, 2017
 
 
The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.508% this morning after closing at 2.454% yesterday.

This morning, U.S. Treasury yields spiked as ADP released strong Employment growth for the month of January across most industries and company sizes. Private payrolls climbed to 246K, up 95K from December, reflecting the biggest employment gain since June 2016. Later this morning, the spot light will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as it concludes its 2-day meeting, investors will watch for the possibility of an additional rate hike throughout 2017 given the strong growth in labor.

MBA Applications fell by -3.20% for the week ended January 27th after rising 4.00% the previous week. FHA purchases declined 5.60% and refinances dropped 25.40%, largely due to the MIP cut reversal. The average 30-Year fixed rate is currently at 4.390% vs. 4.350% the previous week. Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI slightly declined to 55.00, while ISM Manufacturing ticked up to 56.00 from 54.50. Construction Spending for the month of January declined -0.20%.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year 5.4 bps up from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/30 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.40% 0.30% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  01/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.20% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  01/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.60% 1.40% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.70% 1.60% 1.70%  
                   
  01/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 1.00% 1.60% -2.50% -  
                   
  01/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jan 15.00 22.10 15.50 17.70  
                   
  01/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 4Q 0.60% 0.50% 0.60% -  
                   
  01/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 5.03% 5.27% 5.10% 5.09%  
                   
  01/31 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 06:00 Nov - 5.64% 5.61% 5.46%  
                   
  02/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Jan - -3.20% 4.00% -  
                   
  02/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 168K 246K 153K 151K  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 55.10 55.00 55.10 -  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 55.00 56.00 54.70 54.50  
                   
  02/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jan 65.50 69.00 65.50 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.20% -0.20% 0.90% -  
                   
  02/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 Feb 0.75% - 0.75% -  
                   
  02/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 Feb 0.50% - 0.50% -  
                   
  02/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - - 42.40% -  
                   
  02/02 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P 1.00% - 3.10% -  
                   
  02/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Jan 250K - 259K -  
                   
  02/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Jan 2063K - 2100K -  
                   
  02/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Jan - - 45.20 -  
                   
  02/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 175K - 156K -  
                   
  02/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 4.70% - 4.70% -  
                   
  02/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 2.80% - 2.90% -  
                   
  02/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - - 62.70% -  
                   
  02/03 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Jan - - 9.20% -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan F - - 55.10 -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan F - - 55.40 -  
                   
  02/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec 0.80% - -2.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - - -0.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - - 0.50% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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