Back to top

Market Commentary

Home
Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   95-29 (-04.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-28 (-03)  
 
  Support   2.734%  
 
  Resistance   2.405%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, February 01, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower than yesterday at the opening of today’s session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.734% after closing at 2.706% during the prior session.

Prices on the 10-Year inched lower even as the Federal Reserve’s FOMC left the benchmark interest rate unchanged yesterday during Janet Yellen’s last meeting as Fed Chair. The Fed expects inflation to stabilize around its 2 percent target throughout this year and the attention will now shift to the next FOMC meeting in March, under Jerome Powell as the new Fed Chair.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 27 reached 230k, lower than estimates of 235k and below its previous mark of 231k revised; while Continuing Claims for the week ended January 20 reached 1953k, above estimates of 1929k and increasing from its previous mark of 1940k revised. Also in today, forecast Markit Manufacturing PMI for January reached 55.50, matching both survey and previous mark; while Bloomberg Consumer Comfort for the week ended January 28 rose to 54.60 from 53.70 prior. Further, year-over-year Challenger U.S. Job Cuts for January registered a -2.80% from -3.60% prior; while preliminary Nonfarm Productivity for the 4Q registered -0.10%, below survey of 0.70% and dropping from its previous 2.70% revised. Finally, ISM Manufacturing for January registered 59.10, above survey of 58.60 but slightly below prior 59.30 revised; while ISM Employment for January registered 54.20, below prior 58.10 revised.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 2.8 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/29 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  01/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.40% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80%  
                   
  01/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.70% 1.80% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -  
                   
  01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Nov 0.60% 0.75% 0.70% -  
                   
  01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 6.30% 6.41% 6.38% 6.32%  
                   
  01/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Jan - -2.60% 4.50% -  
                   
  01/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 185k 234k 250k 242k  
                   
  01/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 4Q 0.60% 0.60% 0.70% -  
                   
  01/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  01/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Dec 1.70% -1.80% 0.60% -  
                   
  01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 31 Jan 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -  
                   
  01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 31 Jan 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% -  
                   
  02/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - -2.80% -3.60% -  
                   
  02/01 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P 0.70% -0.10% 3.00% 2.70%  
                   
  02/01 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 4Q P 0.90% 2.00% -0.20% -0.10%  
                   
  02/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Jan 235k 230k 233k 231k  
                   
  02/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Jan 1929k 1953k 1937k 1940k  
                   
  02/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Jan - 54.60 53.70 -  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 55.50 55.50 55.50 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.40% 0.70% 0.80% 0.60%  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 58.60 59.10 59.70 59.30  
                   
  02/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jan 68.80 72.70 69.00 68.30  
                   
  02/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 180k - 148k -  
                   
  02/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 4.10% - 4.10% -  
                   
  02/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.20% - 0.30% -  
                   
  02/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 2.60% - 2.50% -  
                   
  02/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - - 62.70% -  
                   
  02/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec 1.50% - 1.30% -  
                   
  02/02 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan F 95.00 - 94.40 -  
                   
  02/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - - 2.90% -  
                   
  02/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - - 0.60% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
Helpful Links
  Visit Us Online   Submit Loan  
  Get Approved   SeeMyLoanStatusTM  
  Download Rate Sheet   Conventional Program Guidelines  
  Price & Lock   Government Program Guidelines  
 
 
   
 
  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
©2019 Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved