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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   96-06 (+10)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-07.5 (+08)  
 
  Support   2.551%  
 
  Resistance   2.433%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, February 2, 2017
 
 
The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.445% this morning after closing at 2.471% yesterday.

Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee concluded its 2-day meeting releasing a boilerplate statement which commented on the continued strength of the U.S. labor market and the expectation for inflation to rise above 2.00% over the medium term, finally stating that it will leave its target rate range unchanged at 0.50% to 0.75%. The reinforcement of rates hiking at such a gradual pace caused the dollar to slip as dollar bulls looked for a faster pace of interest rate hikes given the current pace of economic growth under the new Presidency.

In economic news, Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected, at 246K vs. the previously revised 260K and the number of people who filed for Continuing Unemployment Claims dropped to 2064K vs. 2103K the previous week. This marks the 100th consecutive week for claims below 300K, the longest streak since 1970. The Consumer Comfort Index rose to 46.60 in the last week of January as confidence in the American economy continue to grow.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year 2.6 bps down from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/30 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.40% 0.30% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  01/30 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.20% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  01/30 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.60% 1.40% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% -  
                   
  01/30 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.70% 1.60% 1.70%  
                   
  01/30 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 1.00% 1.60% -2.50% -  
                   
  01/30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Jan 15.00 22.10 15.50 17.70  
                   
  01/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 4Q 0.60% 0.50% 0.60% -  
                   
  01/31 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 5.03% 5.27% 5.10% 5.09%  
                   
  01/31 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 06:00 Nov - 5.64% 5.61% 5.46%  
                   
  02/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 27 Jan - -3.20% 4.00% -  
                   
  02/01 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 168K 246K 153K 151K  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 55.10 55.00 55.10 -  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 55.00 56.00 54.70 54.50  
                   
  02/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jan 65.50 69.00 65.50 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.20% -0.20% 0.90% -  
                   
  02/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 1 Feb 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% -  
                   
  02/01 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 1 Feb 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% -  
                   
  02/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - -38.80% 42.40% -  
                   
  02/02 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P 1.00% 1.30% 3.10% 3.50%  
                   
  02/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 28 Jan 250K 246K 259K 260K  
                   
  02/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 21 Jan 2063K 2064K 2100K 2103K  
                   
  02/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 29 Jan - 46.60 45.20 -  
                   
  02/03 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 175K - 156K -  
                   
  02/03 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 4.70% - 4.70% -  
                   
  02/03 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 2.80% - 2.90% -  
                   
  02/03 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - - 62.70% -  
                   
  02/03 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Jan - - 9.20% -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan F - - 55.10 -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan F - - 55.40 -  
                   
  02/03 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec 0.80% - -2.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - - -0.40% -  
                   
  02/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - - 0.50% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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