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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   94-31 (-16)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-07 (-11)  
 
  Support   2.844%  
 
  Resistance   2.405%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, February 02, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower than yesterday at the opening of today’s session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.844% after closing at 2.791% during the prior session.

Prices on UST 10-Year dropped further on Friday as strong jobs data for January fueled expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates in March.

Today we received January’s print for Nonfarm Payrolls, which rose to 200k, beating survey of 180k and up from its previous 160k revised mark; and Private Payrolls, which rose to 196k, beating survey of 181k and up from its previous 166k mark. Also in today, month-over-month Average Hourly Earnings for January rose 0.30%, above survey of 0.20% but slightly below previous mark of 0.40% revised; while year-over-year Average Hourly Earnings for January rose 2.90%, above survey of 2.60% and up from previous mark of 2.70% revised. Finally, Unemployment Rate for January remained at 4.10%, in line with both survey and prior mark; while Labor Force Participation Rate also remained at 62.70%, in line with prior mark.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year yield up 5.3 bps from prior closing.

Have A Wonderful Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  01/29 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  01/29 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec 0.40% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80%  
                   
  01/29 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.70% 1.80% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% -  
                   
  01/29 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -  
                   
  01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Nov 0.60% 0.75% 0.70% -  
                   
  01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Nov 6.30% 6.41% 6.38% 6.32%  
                   
  01/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Jan - -2.60% 4.50% -  
                   
  01/31 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan 185k 234k 250k 242k  
                   
  01/31 Employment Cost Index 05:30 4Q 0.60% 0.60% 0.70% -  
                   
  01/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  01/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Dec 1.70% -1.80% 0.60% -  
                   
  01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 31 Jan 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% -  
                   
  01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 31 Jan 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% -  
                   
  02/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - -2.80% -3.60% -  
                   
  02/01 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P 0.70% -0.10% 3.00% 2.70%  
                   
  02/01 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 4Q P 0.90% 2.00% -0.20% -0.10%  
                   
  02/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Jan 235k 230k 233k 231k  
                   
  02/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Jan 1929k 1953k 1937k 1940k  
                   
  02/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Jan - 54.60 53.70 -  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 55.50 55.50 55.50 -  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.40% 0.70% 0.80% 0.60%  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 58.60 59.10 59.70 59.30  
                   
  02/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Jan 68.80 72.70 69.00 68.30  
                   
  02/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan 180k 200k 148k 160k  
                   
  02/02 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan 4.10% 4.10% 4.10% -  
                   
  02/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan 0.20% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  02/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan 2.60% 2.90% 2.50% 2.70%  
                   
  02/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Jan - 62.70% 62.70% -  
                   
  02/02 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec 1.50% 1.70% 1.30% 1.70%  
                   
  02/02 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Jan F 95.00 95.70 94.40 -  
                   
  02/02 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - 2.80% 2.90% -  
                   
  02/02 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - 0.70% 0.60% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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