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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-26 (+08.5) 1.822%  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   104-27.5 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   2.230%  
 
  Resistance   1.840%  
 
 
 
 
Today's Blurb Wednesday, February 3, 2016
 
 
           MBA Mortgage Applications fell 2.60% last week following three consecutive weekly advances of 8.80%, 9.00% and 21.30%. Purchases fell 7.00% after rising 4.60% prior (+16.60% YoY), Refinancing edged up 0.30% following a 11.30% gain prior (-31.50% YoY), and the average interest rate for a 30-Year Conventional Conforming loan fell below 4.000% to 3.970% vs. 4.020% prior (3.790% a year ago). ADP rose 205K in January, outpacing expectations for a 195K rise. The December ADP number was revised up from 257K to 267K. Since the January ADP data was close to expectations it is unlikely to inspire revisions to Friday's Nonfarm Payroll forecasts. Over the past 12 months ADP has diverged from Nonfarm Payrolls by an absolute average of 36K, with overestimates as large as 18K and underestimates as large as 140K. Markit US Services PMI posted just under expectations at 53.20 vs. 53.70 prior (consensus 53.70). ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite fell to 53.50 in January from 55.30 in December (consensus 55.10). This is the fourth consecutive month of declines for ISM. Factories are feeling the pain from the persistent weakness in commodities, a stronger dollar, and cooling overseas markets. Treasuries are up this morning following this morning's data release as investors speculate as to the Fed's ability to hike in 2016 given current data and global market conditions. The curve is steeper this morning with 2s10s up 1.0 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/01 Personal Income 05:30 Dec   0.20% 0.30% 0.30% -  
                   
  02/01 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec   0.10% 0.00% 0.30% 0.50%  
                   
  02/01 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec   0.00% -0.10%  0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  02/01 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec    0.60%  0.60%  0.40% -  
                   
  02/01 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec   0.10% 0.00%  0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  02/01 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec  1.40% 1.40% 1.30% 1.40%  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 52.60 52.40 52.70 -  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 48.40 48.20 48.20 48.00  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.60%   0.10% -0.40% -0.60%  
                   
  02/02 ISM New York 06:45 Jan - 54.60   62.00 -  
                   
  02/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Jan   -   -2.60%   8.80% -  
                   
  02/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan    195K 205K   257K 267K  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan F 53.70 53.20 53.70 -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan F - 53.20 53.70 -  
                   
  02/04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan - - -27.60% -  
                   
  02/04 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P -2.00% - 2.20% -  
                   
  02/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Jan   277K -   278K -  
                   
  02/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Jan  2240K -  2268K -  
                   
  02/04   Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 31 Jan  - -  44.60 -  
                   
  02/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec   -2.80% -   -0.20% -  
                   
  02/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F -4.50% -   -5.10% -  
                   
  02/05 Trade Balance 05:30 Dec    -$43.00 B - -$42.37 B -  
                   
  02/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan    190K - 292K -  
                   
  02/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan     5.00% - 5.00% -  
                   
  02/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan     0.30% - 0.00% -  
                   
  02/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan    2.20% - 2.50% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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