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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-15 (+06.5) 1.860%  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   104-26 (+04.5)  
 
  Support   2.230%  
 
  Resistance   1.840%  
 
 
 
 
Today's Blurb Thursday, February 4, 2016
 
 
         Initial Jobless Claims rose by 8K last week to 285K from a revised 277K prior (consensus 278K). This marks the 48th consecutive week of claims below 300K. The 4-week moving average for Jobless Claims rose to 284,750 from 282,750. Continuing Claims fell by 18K to 2255K from an upwardly revised 2273K prior. Factory Orders contracted 2.90% in December following a downwardly revised 0.70% contraction in November. Total factory orders have fallen 3.90% YoY. The factory sector continues to be pressured by the stronger dollar and subsequent diminished demand for domestically manufactured goods. Durable Goods fell the most since August 2014, down 5.00% (consensus -4.50%) as a result of less demand for planes, computers and machinery. Durable Goods Excluding Transportation fell 1.00% following a 1.20% decline prior. Treasuries are up this morning following the disappointing manufacturing data and the curve has flattened with 2s10s down 1.5 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/01 Personal Income 05:30 Dec   0.20% 0.30% 0.30% -  
                   
  02/01 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec   0.10% 0.00% 0.30% 0.50%  
                   
  02/01 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec   0.00% -0.10%  0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  02/01 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec    0.60%  0.60%  0.40% -  
                   
  02/01 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec   0.10% 0.00%  0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  02/01 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec  1.40% 1.40% 1.30% 1.40%  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 52.60 52.40 52.70 -  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 48.40 48.20 48.20 48.00  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.60%   0.10% -0.40% -0.60%  
                   
  02/02 ISM New York 06:45 Jan - 54.60   62.00 -  
                   
  02/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Jan   -   -2.60%   8.80% -  
                   
  02/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan    195K 205K   257K 267K  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan F 53.70 53.20 53.70 -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan F - 53.20 53.70 -  
                   
  02/04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan -    41.60% -27.60% -  
                   
  02/04 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P -2.00% -3.00% 2.20% 2.10%  
                   
  02/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Jan   278K 285K   278K 277K  
                   
  02/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Jan  2240K 2255K  2268K 2273K  
                   
  02/04   Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 31 Jan  - 44.20  44.60 -  
                   
  02/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec   -2.80% -2.90%   -0.20% -0.70%  
                   
  02/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F -4.50% -5.00%   -5.10% -  
                   
  02/05 Trade Balance 05:30 Dec    -$43.20 B - -$42.37 B -  
                   
  02/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan    190K - 292K -  
                   
  02/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan     5.00% - 5.00% -  
                   
  02/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan     0.30% - 0.00% -  
                   
  02/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan    2.20% - 2.50% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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