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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-07 (-12) 1.887%  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   104-21 (-03.5)  
 
  Support   2.230%  
 
  Resistance   1.840%  
 
 
 
 
Today's Blurb Friday, February 5, 2016
 
 
          Nonfarm Payrolls came in well below expectations at 151K (consensus 190K) with a downward revision to December's total from 292K to 262K. Average Hourly Earnings outpaced expectations for a 0.30% advance, up 0.50% in January following no growth in December. Year over year Hourly Earnings have risen 2.50% (consensus 2.20%). The number of average hours in the workweek ticked up from 34.50 to 34.60. While the headline number is disappointing, the uptick in earnings and workweek hours points to a further tightening in the labor market. The Unemployment Rate edged down from 5.00% to 4.90%, consistent with the Fed's determined long term natural rate. The Labor Force Participation rate also ticked up as more workers sought employment, up to 62.70% vs. 62.60% prior. The Trade Deficit widened in December as the strong dollar supported Imports and weakening growth abroad held back overseas demand for domestic products. The gap increased by 2.70% to $43.40 Billion from $42.20 Billion in November. Imports increased 0.30%, while exports dipped 0.30% (weakest since January 2012). Treasuries are lower this morning following the mixed payrolls report, and the curve has flattened with 2s10s down 1.2 bps.
Have A Great Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/01 Personal Income 05:30 Dec   0.20% 0.30% 0.30% -  
                   
  02/01 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec   0.10% 0.00% 0.30% 0.50%  
                   
  02/01 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec   0.00% -0.10%  0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  02/01 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec    0.60%  0.60%  0.40% -  
                   
  02/01 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec   0.10% 0.00%  0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  02/01 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec  1.40% 1.40% 1.30% 1.40%  
                   
  02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Jan F 52.60 52.40 52.70 -  
                   
  02/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Jan 48.40 48.20 48.20 48.00  
                   
  02/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.60%   0.10% -0.40% -0.60%  
                   
  02/02 ISM New York 06:45 Jan - 54.60   62.00 -  
                   
  02/03 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 29 Jan   -   -2.60%   8.80% -  
                   
  02/03 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Jan    195K 205K   257K 267K  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Jan F 53.70 53.20 53.70 -  
                   
  02/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Jan F - 53.20 53.70 -  
                   
  02/04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Jan -    41.60% -27.60% -  
                   
  02/04 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q P -2.00% -3.00% 2.20% 2.10%  
                   
  02/04 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 30 Jan   278K 285K   278K 277K  
                   
  02/04 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Jan  2240K 2255K  2268K 2273K  
                   
  02/04   Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 31 Jan  - 44.20  44.60 -  
                   
  02/04 Factory Orders 07:00 Dec   -2.80% -2.90%   -0.20% -0.70%  
                   
  02/04 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F -4.50% -5.00%   -5.10% -  
                   
  02/05 Trade Balance 05:30 Dec    -$43.20 B -$43.36 B -$42.37 B -$42.23 B  
                   
  02/05 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Jan    190K 151K 292K 262K  
                   
  02/05 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Jan     5.00% 4.90% 5.00% -  
                   
  02/05 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Jan     0.30% 0.50% 0.00% -  
                   
  02/05 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Jan    2.20% 2.50% 2.50% 2.70%  
                   
 
 
 
 
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