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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

February 10, 2015
10-YEAR NOTES   102-10 (-11)
FN 3.5% COUPON   105-00 (-03.5)
SUPPORT   2.40%







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    The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reached the highest level since October 2006 in December, up +2.3 points to 100.4. Today’s data release for January showed that the Index disappointed expectations, down -2.5 points to 97.9 (consensus 101) to reverse the prior month’s advance. Wholesale Trade Sales for December were $449.8 Billion, down -0.4% from the revised November level but up +1.4% YoY. Total Wholesale Inventories for December were $547.6 Billion, up +0.1% from the revised November level and up +6.7% YoY. The stock-to-sales ratio reached 1.22 in December after gaining +0.1 point in November to 1.21. Treasuries are continuing to sell-off for the fourth consecutive day as tensions ease in Greece and in anticipation of today’s $24 Billion 3-Year note auction. The curve has bull steepened with 2s10s up +2.8 bps and MBS is outperforming treasury hedges by 0.5-1.0 tick.
This Week's Events:
02/10 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 December 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% -
02/11 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 February 6 - - 1.3% -
02/11 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 January -$19.0 Billion - -$10.3 Billion -
02/12 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 January -0.4% - -0.9% -
02/12 Jobless Claims 05:30 February 7 287K - 278K -
02/12 Continuing Claims 05:30 January 31 2401K - 2400K -
02/12 Business Inventories 07:00 December 0.2% - 0.2% -
02/13 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 January -3.2% - -2.5% -
02/13 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 January -8.9% - -5.5% -
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