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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-16.5 (-07.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-04 (-04)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.622%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Higher as Tentative Deal Reached on Border Security
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-year treasury yield is at 2.6823, 2.87 bps increased from prior closing of 2.6536.

Investors gained their risk appetite back as optimism grew over both trade and a potential deal to avert a second government shutdown. The White House said that President Trump wants to meet his Chinese counterpart “very soon” in an effort to end the trade war yesterday. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will be joining US negotiators in high level talks this Thursday and Friday. In Washington, Republican and Democrat negotiators reached an “agreement in principle” on border security that would allocate $1.375 billion for the border barriers. It is not yet known whether President Trump will accept this tentative deal since the suggested funding is still far less than $5.7 billion he wanted for concrete border wall. A dovish shift by the world’s central banks has also helped investors regaining confidence in riskier assets. Treasuries slid and the dollar ended its eight day rally.

The January NFIB Small Business Optimism declined sharply to 101.20 from a revised prior of 104.40 vs. 103.00 consensus which was the lowest reading since November 2016, mainly due to the increasing anxiety over the trade tension and the government shutdown. JOLTS Job Openings, on the other hand, rebounded to 7335 from a revised prior of 7166 vs. 6846 consensus, underscoring robust labor market. Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak about economic development in high rural poverty in Mississippi at 9:45 AM (PT) today.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-year yield up 2.87 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/11 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  02/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jan 103.00 101.20 104.40 104.40  
                   
  02/12 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Dec 6846 7335 6888 7166  
                   
  02/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Feb - - -2.50% -  
                   
  02/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Jan 0.10% - -0.10% -0.00%  
                   
  02/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Jan 1.50% - 1.90% -  
                   
  02/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Jan 0.10% - -0.20% -0.10%  
                   
  02/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Jan 2.10% - 2.50% -  
                   
  02/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Feb 225k - 234k -  
                   
  02/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Feb 1740k - 1736k -  
                   
  02/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Feb - - 58.20 -  
                   
  02/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Nov 0.20% - 0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Feb 7.00 - 3.90 -  
                   
  02/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan -0.10% - -1.00% -  
                   
  02/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan -1.60% - -0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan -0.10% - -0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan - - 1.10% -  
                   
  02/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jan 0.10% - 0.30% -  
                   
  02/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jan 78.70% - 78.70% -  
                   
  02/15 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb P 93.50 - 91.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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