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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-09.5 (-05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-0.5 (-04.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.622%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Rose for a Third Day as Optimism Grew over Trade Talks
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-year treasury yield is at 2.7039, 1.62 bps increased from prior closing of 2.6877.

Stocks extended its rally for a third straight day on growing optimism for a trade deal. Yesterday, President Trump signaled his willingness to postpone the current March deadline if the two sides are near an agreement. Chinese President Xi is also set to meet with US delegates on Friday, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. In Washington, while President Trump expressed his uneasy feeling toward the $1.375 billion funding for border security from the tentative deal which is far less than $5.7 billion he demanded, he also downplayed chance of seeing a second government shutdown which could be even more economically deteriorative than the first one. Treasuries slid and WTI crude extended its gain from yesterday.

MBA Mortgage Applications declined 3.70% last week after falling 2.50% in prior. Both purchases and refinances fell 6.10% and 0.10% after falling 4.90% and rising 0.30% in prior, respectively. The headline CPI in January remained flat from revised prior of 0.00% vs. 0.10% consensus. The core CPI also came in line with both prior and consensus of 0.20%. The year over year change came in slightly higher than consensus of 1.50% at 1.60%. The December Monthly Budget Statement is scheduled to be released at 11:00 AM (PT), and Philadelphia Fed President Harker is set to speak on the economic outlook at a luncheon hosted at his bank at 9:00 AM (PT) today. Corporate earnings season continues with Cisco, Nvidia, Nestle, Coca-Cola, and Credit Suisse among the companies who are scheduled to post results this week.

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-year yield up 1.62 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/11 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  02/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jan 103.00 101.20 104.40 104.40  
                   
  02/12 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Dec 6846 7335 6888 7166  
                   
  02/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Feb - -3.70% -2.50% -  
                   
  02/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Jan 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  02/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Jan 1.50% 1.60% 1.90% -  
                   
  02/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Jan 0.10% - -0.20% -0.10%  
                   
  02/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Jan 2.10% - 2.50% -  
                   
  02/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Feb 225k - 234k -  
                   
  02/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Feb 1740k - 1736k -  
                   
  02/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Feb - - 58.20 -  
                   
  02/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Nov 0.20% - 0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Feb 7.00 - 3.90 -  
                   
  02/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan -0.10% - -1.00% -  
                   
  02/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan -1.60% - -0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan -0.10% - -0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan - - 1.10% -  
                   
  02/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jan 0.10% - 0.30% -  
                   
  02/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jan 78.70% - 78.70% -  
                   
  02/15 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb P 93.50 - 91.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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