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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-28.5 (-12.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-21.5 (-09.5)  
 
  Support   2.877%  
 
  Resistance   2.451%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower than yesterday at the opening of today’s session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.867% after closing at 2.830% during the prior session.

Treasuries sold off at the start of today’s session as inflation reports for January came in higher than markets anticipated, causing anxiety of an accelerated rate path by the Federal Reserve. Month-over-month CPI for January rose to 0.50%, beating estimates of 0.30% and above prior mark of 0.20% revised; while year-over-year CPI for January rose to 2.10%, beating estimates of 1.90% and in line with its prior mark. Month-over-month CPI Ex Food and Energy for January rose 0.30%, above estimates and prior revised mark of 0.20%; while year-over-year CPI Ex Food and Energy rose 1.80%, above estimates of 1.70% and in line with prior mark.

Meanwhile, MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ended February 9 reflected a -4.10% change versus 0.70% during its prior week. Month-over-month Retail Sales Advance for January reflected -0.30%, below estimates of 0.20% and lower than previous mark of 0.00% revised. Finally, year-over-year Average Weekly Earnings for January reflected a 0.40% change versus 0.90% prior revised; while year-over-year Average Hourly Earnings for January reflected a 0.80% change versus 0.60% prior revised.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 3.7 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jan $51.00b $49.20b $51.30b -  
                   
  02/13 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jan 105.30 106.90 104.90 -  
                   
  02/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Feb - -4.10% 0.70% -  
                   
  02/14 CPI MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% 0.50% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  02/14 CPI YoY 05:30 Jan 1.90% 2.10% 2.10% -  
                   
  02/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jan 0.20% -0.30% 0.40% 0.00%  
                   
  02/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Dec 0.30% 0.40% 0.40% -  
                   
  02/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Feb 18.00 - 17.70 -  
                   
  02/15 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Jan 0.40% - -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  02/15 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Jan 2.40% - 2.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Feb 228k - 221k -  
                   
  02/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Feb 1925k - 1923k -  
                   
  02/15 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Feb 21.60 - 22.20 -  
                   
  02/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jan 0.20% - 0.90% -  
                   
  02/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jan 78.00% - 77.90% -  
                   
  02/15 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 11 Feb - - 54.40 -  
                   
  02/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Feb 72.00 - 72.00 -  
                   
  02/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Dec - - $33.80b -  
                   
  02/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Dec - - $57.50b -  
                   
  02/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan 0.60% - 0.10% -  
                   
  02/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan 3.00% - 3.00% -  
                   
  02/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Jan 1235k - 1192k -  
                   
  02/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jan 3.60% - -8.20% -  
                   
  02/16 Building Permits 05:30 Jan 1300k - 1302k 1300k  
                   
  02/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jan 0.00% - -0.10% -0.20%  
                   
  02/16 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - -0.10% -  
                   
  02/16 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan - - 2.60% -  
                   
  02/16 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb P 95.30 - 95.70 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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