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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-22 (+13.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-05 (+06.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.622%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, February 14, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Inched Lower after Disappointing American Retail Sales Data
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-year treasury yield is at 2.6536, 4.85 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.7021.

Despite of growing optimism over the trade talks between the US and China, stocks sold off as the decline in December US retail sales marked the biggest monthly drop since September 2009, suggesting the slowdown in American economy. Treasuries advanced while WTI crude edged lower this morning. More positive news came out of the trade front as President Trump is reportedly considering deferring the deadline for imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese goods by 60 days. He also added that the trade talks in China were “going very well”, building positive investor sentiment. Furthermore, Chinese President Xi is set to meet with US delegates tomorrow, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. In Washington, Congress plans to vote today on the bill that would avert a second government shutdown. President Trump hinted that he would grudgingly sign the legislation to prevent the shutdown.

The significant drop in December Retail Sales caught the market by surprise. The headline data plunged to -1.20% from 0.10% revised prior. The January PPI Final Demand also declined 0.1% while consensus called for a 0.10% increase. The core data, however, increased 0.30% from 0.00% revised prior vs. 0.20% consensus. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 239k from revised prior of 235k vs. 225k estimate. Continuing Claims also climbed to 1773k from 1736k prior vs. 1740k estimate. Lastly, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort improved to 60.00 from 58.20 prior, continuing the positive sentiment from last week. Nvidia will post their earnings result after the bell today.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-year yield down 4.85 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/11 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  02/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jan 103.00 101.20 104.40 104.40  
                   
  02/12 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Dec 6846 7335 6888 7166  
                   
  02/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Feb - -3.70% -2.50% -  
                   
  02/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Jan 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  02/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Jan 1.50% 1.60% 1.90% -  
                   
  02/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Jan 0.10% -0.10% -0.20% -0.10%  
                   
  02/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Jan 2.10% 2.00% 2.50% -  
                   
  02/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Feb 225k 239k 234k 235k  
                   
  02/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Feb 1740k 1773k 1736k -  
                   
  02/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Feb - 60.00 58.20 -  
                   
  02/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Nov 0.20% -0.10% 0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Feb 7.00 - 3.90 -  
                   
  02/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan -0.20% - -1.00% -  
                   
  02/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan -1.60% - -0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan -0.10% - -0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan - - 1.10% -  
                   
  02/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jan 0.10% - 0.30% -  
                   
  02/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jan 78.70% - 78.70% -  
                   
  02/15 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb P 93.50 - 91.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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