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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-24.5 (+05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-17.5 (+04)  
 
  Support   2.909%  
 
  Resistance   2.454%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, February 15, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are lower from yesterday at the opening of today’s session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.909% after closing at 2.903% during the prior session.

Treasuries inched lower yesterday across the curve following the higher-than-estimated inflation reports. The UST 10-Year yield peaked at 2.942%; its highest mark since early 2014.  

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 10 reached 230k, exceeding expectations of 228k and up from its previous 221k; while Continuing Claims for the week ended February 3 reached 1942k, also exceeding survey of 1925k and up from previous 1927k revised. Further, month-over-month PPI Final Demand for January rose 0.40%, matching market survey and increasing from its previous -0.10% print; while year-over-year PPI Final Demand for January rose 2.70%, exceeding market survey of 2.40% and increasing from its previous 2.60% print. Finally, Empire Manufacturing for February registered 13.10, below estimates of 18.00 and decreasing from prior 17.70 mark; month-over-month Industrial Production for January registered a -0.10% change, versus estimates of 0.20% and prior mark of 0.40% revised; and Capacity Utilization for January reached 77.50%, falling short of 78.00% estimated and slightly down from its previous 77.70% revised.

The curve has bear-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield up 0.6 bp from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/12 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jan $51.00b $49.20b $51.30b -  
                   
  02/13 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jan 105.30 106.90 104.90 -  
                   
  02/14 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 9 Feb - -4.10% 0.70% -  
                   
  02/14 CPI MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% 0.50% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  02/14 CPI YoY 05:30 Jan 1.90% 2.10% 2.10% -  
                   
  02/14 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jan 0.20% -0.30% 0.40% 0.00%  
                   
  02/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Dec 0.30% 0.40% 0.40% -  
                   
  02/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Feb 18.00 13.10 17.70 -  
                   
  02/15 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Jan 0.40% 0.40% -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  02/15 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Jan 2.40% 2.70% 2.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 10 Feb 228k 230k 221k 223k  
                   
  02/15 Continuing Claims 05:30 3 Feb 1925k 1942k 1923k 1927k  
                   
  02/15 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Feb 21.80 25.80 22.20 -  
                   
  02/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jan 0.20% -0.10% 0.90% 0.40%  
                   
  02/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jan 78.00% 77.50% 77.90% 77.70%  
                   
  02/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Feb 72.00 72.00 72.00 -  
                   
  02/15 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Dec - - $33.80b -  
                   
  02/15 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Dec - - $57.50b -  
                   
  02/16 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan 0.60% - 0.10% -  
                   
  02/16 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan 3.00% - 3.00% -  
                   
  02/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Jan 1235k - 1192k -  
                   
  02/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Jan 3.60% - -8.20% -  
                   
  02/16 Building Permits 05:30 Jan 1300k - 1302k 1300k  
                   
  02/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Jan 0.00% - -0.10% -0.20%  
                   
  02/16 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - -0.10% -  
                   
  02/16 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan - - 2.60% -  
                   
  02/16 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb P 95.30 - 95.70 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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