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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-19.5 (-04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-03 (-01.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.622%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, February 15, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Rose on Trade Hopes
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-year treasury yield is at 2.6644, 1.08 bps increased from prior closing of 2.6536.

The trade talks between the world’s two largest economies continued to dictate the market sentiment. Both sides acknowledged that the week-long discussions had led to important progress and consensus in principle on the main topics. Another round of negotiations is set to continue next week in Washington. Despite of China’s factory inflation decelerating for a seventh month, US stock index futures rose slightly this morning as the positive developments on the trade front overshadowed growing concerns over slowdown in the global economy. Treasuries slid and the dollar advanced. In Washington, while President Trump is expected to sign the legislation later today, he may use his executive powers to declare a national emergency to unilaterally shift about $7 billion in federal resources to construct the border wall.

In the economic calendar today, Empire Manufacturing rose to 8.80 from 3.90 prior which was the lowest level since May 2017, easing concerns in manufacturing sector. January Import Price Index fell 0.50% again from a 1.00% decline in December vs. -0.20% consensus, primarily due to the ongoing trade war. Industrial Production in January also declined 0.60% from a 0.10% increase in prior revised. January Capacity Utilization reading came in at 78.20% from an upwardly revised prior of 78.80% vs. 78.70% consensus. Lastly, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in higher than expectation of 93.70 at 95.50 from 91.20 prior.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-year yield up 1.08 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/11 No Data - - - - - -  
                   
  02/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Jan 103.00 101.20 104.40 104.40  
                   
  02/12 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Dec 6846 7335 6888 7166  
                   
  02/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Feb - -3.70% -2.50% -  
                   
  02/13 CPI MoM 05:30 Jan 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  02/13 CPI YoY 05:30 Jan 1.50% 1.60% 1.90% -  
                   
  02/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Jan 0.10% -0.10% -0.20% -0.10%  
                   
  02/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Jan 2.10% 2.00% 2.50% -  
                   
  02/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Feb 225k 239k 234k 235k  
                   
  02/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Feb 1740k 1773k 1736k -  
                   
  02/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Feb - 60.00 58.20 -  
                   
  02/14 Business Inventories 07:00 Nov 0.20% -0.10% 0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Feb 7.00 8.80 3.90 -  
                   
  02/15 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan -0.20% -0.50% -1.00% -  
                   
  02/15 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan -1.60% -1.70% -0.60% -0.50%  
                   
  02/15 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Jan -0.10% -0.60% -0.60% -  
                   
  02/15 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Jan - -0.20% 1.10% -  
                   
  02/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Jan 0.10% -0.60% 0.30% 0.10%  
                   
  02/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Jan 78.70% 78.20% 78.70% 78.80%  
                   
  02/15 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb P 93.70 95.50 91.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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