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Market Commentary


Tuesday
February 17, 2015
10-YEAR NOTES   99-16 (-01)
2.056%
FN 3.5% COUPON   104-19.5 (+01.5)
SUPPORT   2.40%
RESISTANCE   1.62%
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      We have a light calendar this week with data on Manufacturing, Housing and tomorrow the FOMC releases the Minutes from the January 27th-28th meeting. Empire Manufacturing came in softer than expected for February at 7.78 vs. 9.95 prior (consensus 8.0). February’s reading was in line with the average over the last five months of 7.08. Shipments advanced to 14.12 vs. 9.59 prior, the highest level since September, and new orders declined -5 points to 1.22. Global economic weakness continues to fuel demand for safe haven assets and support treasuries. Earlier this morning treasuries got a boost as Greece’s Finance Minister struggles to renegotiate its debt situation in Europe; without additional aid it is estimated that Greece may run out of money by the end of March. Treasury further advanced in response to the softer Empire Manufacturing data, and the curve has bull steepened with 2s10s up +3 bps.
 
This Week's Events:
 
DATE EVENTS TIME (PST) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED
02/17 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 February 8.00 7.78 9.95 -
02/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 February 13 - - -9.00%  
02/18 Housing Starts 05:30 January 1070K - 1089K -
02/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 January -1.70% - 4.40%  
02/18 Building Permits 05:30 January 1069K - 1032K 1058K
02/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 January 1.00% - -1.90% 0.60%
02/18 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 January -0.40% - -0.30% -0.20%
02/18 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 January 0.30% - 1.10% -
02/18 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 January 0.30% - -0.10% -
02/19 Jobless Claims 05:30 February 14 290K - 304K -
02/19 Continuing Claims 05:30 February 7 2360K - 2354K -
02/19 Leading Index 07:00 January 0.30% - 0.50% -
02/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 February P 53.6 - 53.9 -
 
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