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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


Monday
February 23, 2015
10-YEAR NOTES   99-09 (+15)
2.077%
FN 3.5% COUPON   104-12 (+05)
SUPPORT   2.40%
RESISTANCE   1.62%
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    This week we have a heavy calendar with data on: Home Sales, Markit PMI, CPI, Durable Goods, Home Prices, Personal Consumption and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Janet Yellen testifies before the Senate (Tuesday) and House of Representatives (Wednesday) this week for the semi-annual Fed Chair testimony, in which she is expected to elaborate on the Federal Reserve’s latest guidance that it can be “patient” in deciding when to raise interest rates as inflation continues to slow and global risk rises. Existing Home Sales rose +2.4% in December, following a -6.3% decline in November. Existing Home Sales for January are expected to slip -1.8% to 4.95 Million. Treasuries are getting a boost this morning as international creditors finalize the four-month extension of Greece’s bailout agreed to on Friday; Greece has until tonight to submit its proposals, which must then be accepted by the EU. 10-Year yields are down 5.1 bps and the curve has bull flattened with 2s10s down -2.2 bps and MBS is underperforming treasury hedges by 1-2 ticks in the production coupons.
 
This Week's Events:
 
DATE EVENTS TIME (PST) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED
02/23 Existing Home Sales 07:00 January 4.95 Millions 4.82 Millions 5.04 Millions 5.07 Millions
02/23 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 January -1.80% -4.90% 2.40% -
02/24 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI MoM 06:00 December - - 0.76% -
02/24 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY 06:00 December - - 4.69% -
02/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 February P - - 54.40 -
02/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 February P 54.50 - 54.20 -
02/25 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 February 20 - - -13.20% -
02/25 New Home Sales 07:00 January 470K - 481K -
02/25
New Home Sales MoM
07:00 January -2.30% - 11.60% -
02/26 CPI MoM 05:30 January -0.60% - -0.40% -0.30%
02/26 CPI YoY 05:30 January -0.10% - 0.80% -
02/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 January 1.60% - -3.40% -3.30%
02/26 Jobless Claims 05:30 February 21 290K - 283K -
02/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 February 14 2395K - 2425K -
02/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 December 0.50% - 0.80% -
02/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q S 2.00% - 2.60% -
02/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q S 4.30% - 4.30% -
 
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