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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-17 (-07)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-08.5 (-02)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.622%  
 
 
 
 
Monday, February 25, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Rise as Trade Optimism Grows
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.6716, 1.98 bps increased from prior closing of 2.6518.

US Stocks advanced as optimism grew with perceived progress in the trade talks after President Trump postponed the March deadline for the imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index rallied the most since 2015 on the news as well. In corporate news, GE surged in premarket after agreeing to sell its bio-pharma business to Danaher Corp for a total consideration of $21.4 billion. Another busy week started for President Trump. House Democrats will vote tomorrow to block his national emergency declaration over the border security. In addition, he is expected to meet with North Korea leader Kim Jong Un for a second summit this week in Vietnam where they may declare a formal end to the Korean War. Also in focus this week will be Fed Chairman Powell delivering semiannual testimony on monetary policy and the state of the economy to House and Senate committees.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined to -0.43 from 0.05 revised prior vs. estimate of 0.10. 35 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions whereas the remaining 50 were negative. The December Wholesale Inventories increased 1.10% from 0.40% revised prior vs. 0.40% consensus. Lastly, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity sharply rose to 13.10 in February from 1.00 prior vs. 4.70 consensus. The US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $41 billion of 5-Year notes at 10:00 AM (PT) today.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 1.98 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/25 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jan 0.10 -0.43 0.27 0.05  
                   
  02/25 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Dec P 0.40% 1.10% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  02/25 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Dec -0.30% -1.00% -0.60% -1.20%  
                   
  02/25 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Feb 4.70 13.10 1.00 -  
                   
  02/26 Housing Starts 05:30 Dec 1253k - 1256k -  
                   
  02/26 Building Permits 05:30 Dec 1290k - 1328k 1322k  
                   
  02/26 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Dec -0.20% - 3.20% -  
                   
  02/26 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Dec -2.40% - 5.00% 4.50%  
                   
  02/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Dec 0.40% - 0.40% -  
                   
  02/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Dec 0.30% - 0.30% -  
                   
  02/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Dec 4.50% - 4.68% -  
                   
  02/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Feb 4.00 - -2.00 -  
                   
  02/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Feb - - 3.60% -  
                   
  02/27 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - - 1.20% -  
                   
  02/27 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - - 0.10% -  
                   
  02/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jan 0.80% - -2.20% -  
                   
  02/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jan - - -9.50% -  
                   
  02/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Feb 220k - 216k -  
                   
  02/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Feb 1738k - 1725k -  
                   
  02/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q A 2.30% - 3.40% -  
                   
  02/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q A 1.60% - 1.60% -  
                   
  02/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q A 3.10% - 3.50% -  
                   
  02/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q A 1.70% - 1.80% -  
                   
  02/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Feb - - 59.60 -  
                   
  02/28 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Feb 6.00 - 5.00 -  
                   
  03/01 Personal Income 05:30 Jan 0.30% - - -  
                   
  03/01 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec -0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.00% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% - 1.80% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.90% - 1.90% -  
                   
  03/01 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb F 95.80 - 95.50 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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