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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary


Thursday
February 26, 2015
10-YEAR NOTES   100-02 (-07.5)
1.995%
FN 3.5% COUPON   104-21 (-03.5)
SUPPORT   2.40%
RESISTANCE   1.62%
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     We have a busy calendar today ahead of tomorrow's 4Q GDP print. CPI for January was largely in line with expectations, down -0.7% vs. -0.4% prior (consensus -0.6%). The energy index fell -9.7% as the gasoline index fell -18.7%, and the food index was unchanged from the prior month. Excluding food and energy CPI rose +0.2% after no growth in December (consensus +0.1%). Durable Goods for January reversed three consecutive months of declines with a +2.8% jump (consensus +1.6%), and the prior was revised down from -3.4% to -3.7%. Excluding transportation Durable Goods rose +0.3% vs. -0.8% prior (consensus +0.5%). The number of Americans filing for unemployment rose last week to 313K vs. 282K the week prior (consensus 290K). Continuing Claims fell to 2401K vs. 2422K prior (consensus 2394K). The FHFA House Price Index rose +0.8% in December after rising +0.7% in November (consensus +0.5%). Treasuries are still below 2%, however the 10-Year note yields have taken an upswing as the market digests today's data dump at +2.4 bps vs. yesterday's close. The curve has bear flattened with 2s10s down -1.3 bps.
 
This Week's Events:
 
DATE EVENTS TIME (PST) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED
02/26 CPI MoM 05:30 January -0.60% -0.70% -0.40% -0.30%
02/26 CPI YoY 05:30 January -0.10% -0.10% 0.80% -
02/26 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 January 1.60% 2.80% -3.40% -3.70%
02/26 Jobless Claims 05:30 February 21 290K 313K 283K 282K
02/26 Continuing Claims 05:30 February 14 2394K 2401K 2425K 2422K
02/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 December 0.50% 0.80% 0.80% 0.70%
02/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q S 2.00% - 2.60% -
02/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q S 4.30% - 4.30% -
 
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