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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-21(-17) 1.773%  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   104-18 (-07)  
 
  Support   2.160%  
 
  Resistance   1.720%  
 
 
 
 
Today's Blurb Friday, February 26, 2016
 
 
              The economy expanded at a faster pace than previously anticipated during the final quarter of 2015. The second estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015 reflected an upward revision to 1.00% (consensus 0.40%) from 0.70% prior. The fourth quarter revision follows growth of 2.00% in Q3, 3.90% in Q2, and 0.60% in Q1. Fourth quarter GDP is up 1.90% YoY which compares to 1.80% in the first estimate, 2.10% in Q3, 2.70% in Q2, and 2.90% in Q1. The largest contributors to the rise in fourth quarter GDP were imports and inventories. Imports were revised from a 1.10% rise to a decline of 0.60%, and inventory accumulation was revised from $68.6 Billion to $81.7 Billion. Consumption growth was revised from +2.20% to +2.00%, gross private investment was revised from -2.50% to -0.70% decline, fixed income investment was revised from +0.20% to +0.10%, residential investment growth was revised from +8.10% to +8.00%, and nonresidential investment was revised from -1.80% to -1.90%. Core PCE rose 1.30% vs. 1.20%. Overall GDP has expanded at an average growth rate of 2.10% per quarter during the recovery. Personal Income rose 0.50% in January (consensus 0.40%) following a 0.30% advance in December. Personal Spending rose 0.50% in January (consensus 0.30%) following an upward revision in December from 0.00% to 0.10%. Personal income is up 4.30% YoY, while real PCE is up 2.90% YoY. For inflation, the headline PCE Deflator rose 0.10% and the Core PCE Deflator rose 0.30% in January. January wages and salaries rose 0.60% in January following a 0.20% rise in December. As further labor market tightening ensues, given that the economy continues to move toward an expansionary phase, wages should continue to rise and sponsor consumer spending. Treasuries are declining this morning following the stronger than expected GDP revision, and the curve is flatter with 2s10s down 1.7 bps.
Have A Nice Weekend!
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/22 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jan   -0.05 0.28 -0.22 -0.34  
                   
  02/22 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Feb P    52.40   51.00  52.40 -  
                   
  02/23 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI MoM 06:00 Dec -   0.78%   0.87%   0.83%  
                   
  02/23 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY 06:00 Dec -   5.43%   5.35%   5.22%  
                   
  02/23 Consumer Confidence Index 07:00 Feb 97.20 92.20 98.10 97.80  
                   
  02/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Feb 2.00 -4.00 2.00 -  
                   
  02/23 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Jan 5.33 M 5.47 M 5.46 M 5.45 M  
                   
  02/23 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jan -2.50%   0.40%    14.70% 12.10%  
                   
  02/24 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 19 Feb - -4.30%     8.20% -  
                   
  02/24 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Feb P 53.50 49.80  53.20 -  
                   
  02/24 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Feb P  - 50.10  53.20 -  
                   
  02/24 New Home Sales 07:00 Jan 520K 494K 544K -  
                   
  02/24 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jan   -4.40% -9.20%   10.80% 8.20%  
                   
  02/25 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 20 Feb   270K  272K 262K -  
                   
  02/25 Continuing Claims 05:30 13 Feb   2253K 2253K 2273K 2272K  
                   
  02/25 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jan P   2.90% 4.90% -5.00% -4.60%  
                   
  02/25 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Dec  0.50%  0.40%  0.50%  0.60%  
                   
  02/25 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 21 Feb  - 44.20  44.30 -  
                   
  02/25 Kansas City Fed Manufact. Index 08:00 Feb  -6.00 - -9.00 -  
                   
  02/26 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q S  0.40% 1.00%   0.70% -  
                   
  02/26 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q S 2.20% 2.00%   2.20% -  
                   
  02/26 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q S 0.80% 0.90%   0.80% -  
                   
  02/26 Personal Spending 07:00 Jan  0.30% 0.50%    0.00% 0.10%  
                   
  02/26 Personal Income 07:00 Jan  0.40% 0.50%    0.30% -  
                   
  02/26 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb F 91.00 91.70 90.70 -  
                   
  02/26 PCE Deflator MoM 07:00 Jan  0.00% 0.10%   -0.10% -  
                   
  02/26  PCE Deflator YoY 07:00 Jan  1.10%  1.30%   0.60% 0.70%  
     
 
 
 
 
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