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Market Commentary



 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-00 (-019)  
 
  FN 2.5% Coupon   103-08+ (+010+)  
 
  Support   1.086%  
 
  Resistance   0.807%  
 
 
 
 
  Friday, February 26, 2021
 
 

Treasury Yields Slightly Lower as Nasdaq Claws Back Losses

 
 
Market opened today's session with treasuries higher across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.4943, 2.56 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.5199.
US stocks opened lower this morning as tech-heavy Nasdaq presented a light improvement after having hit a six-week low. Inflation remained front and center, even as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated rising treasury yields boded an optimistic outlook on future economic conditions. Elsewhere, Bitcoin dropped below $48,000 as WTI Crude and Gold both saw declines of 1.40% and 1.20%, respectively. On the economic front, Wholesale Inventories MoM more than doubled expectations after reporting a 1.30% increase for the month of January. Personal Income and Spending also showed significant improvements, when compared to a month prior, after reporting increases of 10.00% and 2.40%, respectively. Notably, the 10.00% increase in personal income can be attributed to December's $900 billion relief bill, all the while core inflation saw a higher-than-anticipated increase of 0.30%, with increased inflation still expected on the basis of higher energy prices. Elsewhere, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index posted a decline from a prior reading of 79.00, to 76.80 for the month of February. Reaching a six-month low, today's reading continues to be well below the 101 reading seen a year ago, as millions of Americans continue to be unemployed, all the while virus cases remain high. Consumer expectation can improve, however, as vaccinations ramp up and Congress approves further economic aid. Reporting this coming Monday are US Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending MoM, and ISM Manufacturing, all expected at 58.50, 0.80%, and 58.60, respectively.
The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 2.56 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/22 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jan 0.50 0.66 0.52 0.41  
                   
  02/22 Leading Index 07:00 Jan 0.40% 0.50% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  02/23 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Dec 9.90% 10.10% 9.08% 9.20%  
                   
  02/23 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Dec 1.25% 1.25% 1.42% 1.46%  
                   
  02/23 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 07:00 Feb 90.00 91.30 89.30 88.90  
                   
  02/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Feb 15.00 14.00 14.00 -  
                   
  02/24 MBA Mortgage Applications  04:00 19 Feb - -11.40% -5.10% -  
                   
  02/25 Durable Goods Orders 08:30 Jan P 1.10% 3.40% 0.50% 1.20%  
                   
  02/25 Initial Jobless Claims 08:30 20 Feb 825k 730k 861k 841k  
                   
  02/25 Continuing Claims 08:30 13 Feb 4460k 4419k 4494k 4520k  
                   
  02/25 GDP Price Index 08:30 4Q S 2.00% 2.10% 2.00% -  
                   
  02/25 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 09:45 21 Feb - 47.30 45.80 -  
                   
  02/26 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  02/26 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jan 1.40% 1.50% 1.30% -  
                   
  02/26 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb F 76.50 76.80 76.20 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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