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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

February 27, 2015
10-YEAR NOTES   99-19 (-07.5)
FN 3.5% COUPON   104-17.5 (-01)
SUPPORT   2.40%
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      The U.S. Economy grew at a slower pace than previously reported in the advanced estimate for the fourth quarter of 2014. According to the second estimate, Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of +2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2014 vs. +2.6% (advanced); in the third quarter real GDP increased +5.0%. Household consumption (PCE) grew the most since 2010 as declining energy prices are leaving the consumer with more spending money, while the rising strength of the dollar continues to provide support for Imports (subtracted from GDP). Real GDP reflected positive contributions from: Personal Consumption Expenditures (+4.2%), Nonresidential Fixed Investment (+4.8%), Exports (+3.2%), State and Local Government Spending (+2.0), and Residential Fixed Investment (+4.8%). The decline in Real GDP reflected an increase in Imports (+10.1%) and a dip in Federal Government Spending (-7.5%). Pending Home Sales fell a steep -3.7% in December after rising +0.6% in November, and for January sales are up +1.7% (MoM). Treasuries got a boost this morning as the downward revision in GDP provided further support for keeping interest rates low. The curve has bear steepened with 2s10s up +2.4 bps and yield on the 10-Year note has pushed back above the 2% level.
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Today's Events:
02/27 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q S 2.00% 2.20% 2.60% -
02/27 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q S 4.30% 4.20% 4.30% -
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