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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-31.5 (-01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-24.5 (-01)  
 
  Support   2.950%  
 
  Resistance   2.530%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
 
 
Treasuries are higher than yesterday at the opening of today's session. The yield on the UST 10-Year is currently at 2.851% after closing at 2.863% during the prior session.

Treasuries dropped earlier in the morning before regaining ground following the release of positive remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell; where the incoming leader reaffirms the Federal Reserve's strong growth outlook. The remarks were released ahead of the live testimony that Powell will offer before the House Financial Services Committee on the Federal Reserve's semi-annual report to Congress on monetary policy and the economy today at 7:00 AM PT.

On the economic calendar today, month-over-month preliminary Wholesale Inventories for January reflected a 0.70% change, versus survey of 0.40% and up from its previous 0.60% revised. Month-over-month Retail Inventories for January reflected a 0.80% change, up from its previous 0.30% revised. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for January came in at -3.70%, versus estimates of -2.00% and lower than its previous 2.60% revised. Further, the month-over-month FHFA House Price Index for December rose 0.30%, versus survey of 0.40% and down from its prior 0.50% revised; while quarter-over-quarter House Price Purchase Index for the 4Q came in at 1.60%, versus its prior 1.50% revised. Finally, month-over-month S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City for December rose 0.64%, versus estimates of 0.60% and down from its prior 0.74% revised; while year-over-year S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City for December rose 6.30%, versus estimates of 6.35% and down from its prior 6.36% revised.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year yield down 1.2 bps from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jan 0.25 0.12 0.27 0.14  
                   
  02/26 New Home Sales 07:00 Jan 647k 593k 625k 643k  
                   
  02/26 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jan 3.50% -7.80% -9.30% -7.60%  
                   
  02/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Feb 30.00 37.20 33.40 -  
                   
  02/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jan P 0.40% 0.70% 0.40% 0.60%  
                   
  02/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jan P -2.00% -3.70% 2.80% 2.60%  
                   
  02/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jan P 0.40% -0.30% 0.70% -  
                   
  02/27 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Dec 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%  
                   
  02/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Dec 0.60% 0.64% 0.75% 0.74%  
                   
  02/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Dec 6.35% 6.30% 6.41% 6.36%  
                   
  02/27 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Feb 15.00 28.00 14.00 -  
                   
  02/28 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 23 Feb - - -6.60% -  
                   
  02/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q S 3.60% - 3.80% -  
                   
  02/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q S 2.50% - 2.60% -  
                   
  02/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q S 2.40% - 2.40% -  
                   
  02/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q S 1.90% - 1.90% -  
                   
  02/28 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jan 0.50% - 0.50% -  
                   
  02/28 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jan - - -1.80% -  
                   
  03/01 Personal Income 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.40% -  
                   
  03/01 Personal Spending 05:30 Jan 0.20% - 0.40% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jan 0.40% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jan 1.70% - 1.70% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% - 0.20% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jan 1.50% - 1.50% -  
                   
  03/01 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 24 Feb 225k - 222k -  
                   
  03/01 Continuing Claims 05:30 17 Feb 1925k - 1875k -  
                   
  03/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 25 Feb - - 56.60 56.60  
                   
  03/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Feb F 55.90 - 55.90 -  
                   
  03/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jan 0.30% - 0.70% -  
                   
  03/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Feb 58.60 - 59.10 -  
                   
  03/02 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb F 99.50 - 99.90 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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