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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-04 (-18.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-29 (-11)  
 
  Support   2.467%  
 
  Resistance   2.312%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
 
 
The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.461% this morning after closing at 2.391% yesterday.

This morning, U.S. Treasuries have continued selling off across the curve primarily driven by yesterday’s Fedspeak and following President Trump’s first speech to Congress. Bond prices began to drop yesterday after both Federal Reserve Presidents, William Dudley and John Williams, signaled to a heightened probability of a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Today, the markets will try to digest Trump’s pro-growth speech and gain some clarity on his fiscal policy in spite of the few details provided.

There is a slew of economic releases this morning, MBA Mortgage Applications rose to 5.80% for the week ended February 24th after falling 2.00% the week prior. FHA purchases are up 10.40% and VA refinance’s fell 0.60%. The average 30-Year fixed rate dropped 0.06% to 4.300%. Personal Income grew 0.40% to $63 Billion in January. Personal Spending grew slightly by 0.20% vs. 0.50% the previous month. MoM Core PCE grew 0.30%, but overall PCE remained at 1.70% growth annually.

In February, Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained strong registering at 54.20, on pace for its strongest quarterly improvement in 2 years. ISM Manufacturing rose 1.70 to 57.70, the largest jump since August 2014, due to increased production and a growing demand in new orders. Finally, Construction Spending dropped 1.00% in January as public construction dropped, primarily in highways and education.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year 7 bps up from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/27 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jan P 1.60% 1.80% -0.50% -0.80%  
                   
  02/27 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jan P 0.50% -0.20% 0.50% 0.90%  
                   
  02/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jan 0.60% -2.80% 1.60% 0.80%  
                   
  02/27 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Feb 19.40 24.50 22.10 -  
                   
  02/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q S 2.10% 1.90% 1.90% -  
                   
  02/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q S 2.60% 3.00% 2.50% -  
                   
  02/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q S 2.10% 2.00% 2.10% -  
                   
  02/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q S 1.30% 1.20% 1.30% -  
                   
  02/28 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Jan P 0.40% -0.10% 1.00% 0.90%  
                   
  02/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Dec 0.70% 0.93% 0.88% 0.89%  
                   
  02/28 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Dec 5.40% 5.58% 5.27% 5.20%  
                   
  02/28 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Feb 10.00 17.00 12.00 -  
                   
  03/01 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 24 Feb - 5.80% -2.00% -  
                   
  03/01 Personal Income 05:30 Jan 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% -  
                   
  03/01 Personal Spending 05:30 Jan 0.30% 0.20% 0.50% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Jan 0.50% 0.40% 0.20% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Jan 2.00% 1.90% 1.60% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Jan 0.30% 0.30% 0.10% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Jan 1.70% 1.70% 1.70% -  
                   
  03/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Feb F 54.50 54.20 54.30 -  
                   
  03/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Feb 56.20 57.70 56.00 -  
                   
  03/01 ISM Prices Paid 07:00 Feb 68.00 68.00 69.00 -  
                   
  03/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jan 0.60% -1.00% -0.20% 0.10%  
                   
  03/01 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  03/02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Feb - - -38.80% -  
                   
  03/02 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 25 Feb 245 K - 244 K -  
                   
  03/02 Continuing Claims 05:30 18 Feb - - 2060 K -  
                   
  03/02 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 26 Feb - - 48.00 -  
                   
  03/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Feb F - - 53.90 -  
                   
  03/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Feb F - - 54.30 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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