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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-02.5 (-04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-29 (-03.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.625%  
 
 
 
 
Friday, March 01, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Continue to Rise on Trade Optimism
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7386, 2.36 bps increased from prior closing of 2.7150.

Despite of geopolitical concerns still looming over the escalation between India and Pakistan and the failure of a summit between the US and North Korea, China offered some reassurance to investors on the global growth outlook. Chinese shares outperformed as the Caixin manufacturing gauge increased. US stocks also opened higher this morning as investors regained confidence on the prospect of a trade deal with China. It was reported that US officials are preparing a final deal for President Trump and Chinese President Xi to sign in weeks. Federal Reserve policymakers reiterated yesterday in their speeches that the US economy is in a good place and any more rate hikes will have to be data dependent. Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy at a NABE conference in Washington today at 10:15 AM (PT).

In the economic calendar today, both Personal Income in December and January were released. There was a 1.00% increase in December from 0.30% revised prior and it printed a 0.10% decline in January vs. 0.30% consensus. Despite of an increase in personal income, Personal Spending in December fell to -0.50% from 0.60% revised prior vs. -0.30% consensus. Markit US Manufacturing PMI came in slightly short of survey of 53.70 at 53.00 in February. ISM Manufacturing also fell to 54.20 from 56.60 prior vs. 55.80 consensus in February. Lastly, University of Michigan Sentiment index declined to 93.80 from 95.50 prior vs. 95.90 consensus last month.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 2.36 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/25 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 05:30 Jan 0.10 -0.43 0.27 0.05  
                   
  02/25 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Dec P 0.40% 1.10% 0.30% 0.40%  
                   
  02/25 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Dec -0.30% -1.00% -0.60% -1.20%  
                   
  02/25 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Feb 4.70 13.10 1.00 -  
                   
  02/26 Housing Starts 05:30 Dec 1256k 1078K 1256k 1214K  
                   
  02/26 Building Permits 05:30 Dec 1290k 1326K 1328k 1322k  
                   
  02/26 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Dec -0.10% -11.20% 3.20% 0.40%  
                   
  02/26 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Dec -2.60% 0.30% 5.00% 4.50%  
                   
  02/26 FHFA House Price Index MoM 06:00 Dec 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  02/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 06:00 Dec 0.30% 0.19% 0.30% 0.25%  
                   
  02/26 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 06:00 Dec 4.50% 4.18% 4.68% 4.58%  
                   
  02/26 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 07:00 Feb 5.00 16.00 -2.00 -  
                   
  02/27 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 22 Feb - 5.30% 3.60% -  
                   
  02/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 05:30 Dec F 0.40% 1.10% 1.10% -  
                   
  02/27 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Dec F - 1.20% 1.20% -  
                   
  02/27 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Dec F - 0.10% 0.10% -  
                   
  02/27 Pending Home Sales MoM 07:00 Jan 1.00% 4.60% -2.20% -2.30%  
                   
  02/27 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 07:00 Jan -4.60% -3.20% -9.50% -  
                   
  02/28 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 23 Feb 220k 225k 216k 217k  
                   
  02/28 Continuing Claims 05:30 16 Feb 1737k 1805k 1725k 1726k  
                   
  02/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 4Q A 2.20% 2.60% 3.40% -  
                   
  02/28 Core PCE QoQ 05:30 4Q A 1.60% 1.70% 1.60% -  
                   
  02/28 Personal Consumption 05:30 4Q A 3.00% 2.80% 3.50% -  
                   
  02/28 GDP Price Index 05:30 4Q A 1.70% 1.80% 1.80% -  
                   
  02/28 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 24 Feb - 61.00 59.60 -  
                   
  02/28 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 08:00 Feb 6.00 - 5.00 -  
                   
  03/01 Personal Income 05:30 Jan 0.30% -0.10% - 1.00%  
                   
  03/01 Personal Income 05:30 Dec 0.40% 1.00% 0.20% 0.30%  
                   
  03/01 Personal Spending 05:30 Dec -0.30% -0.50% 0.40% 0.60%  
                   
  03/01 PCE Deflator MoM 05:30 Dec 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  03/01 PCE Deflator YoY 05:30 Dec 1.70% 1.70% 1.80% -  
                   
  03/01 PCE Core MoM 05:30 Dec 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%  
                   
  03/01 PCE Core YoY 05:30 Dec 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% -  
                   
  03/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Feb F 53.70 53.00 53.70 -  
                   
  03/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Feb 55.80 54.20 56.60 -  
                   
  03/01 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Feb F 95.90 93.80 95.50 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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