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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-24 (-11) 1.874%  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   104-16.5 (-03.5)  
 
  Support   2.160%  
 
  Resistance   1.720%  
 
 
 
 
Today's Blurb Friday, March 4, 2016
 
 
            Today’s Payroll report showed that the US added more workers in February than expected, and January’s numbers were revised higher. Total Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 242K jobs (consensus 195K), and January was revised up from 151K to 172K. The Unemployment rate held at 4.90% (consensus 4.90%), and the Labor Force Participation Rate jumped from 62.70% to 62.90% (consensus 62.80%). While the headline number is strong, the underline wage growth data sends some mixed signals. Average Hourly Earnings declined 0.10% in February (consensus +0.20%), and declined from 2.50% to 2.20% YoY. The increase in labor market participation without advancing wages may point to a decline in the quality of the jobs being added, and while it is clear that job growth is occurring, these jobs are not experiencing the wage appreciation needed to contribute to inflation. The Trade deficit widened more than forecast in January, up 2.20% to $45.70 Billion as exports dropped 2.10% to the lowest level since June 2011. Treasuries initially declined following the hotter than expected Jobs headline, and have since been regaining ground. The curve is steeper with 2s10s up 1.1 bps.
Have A Superb Weekend! 
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  02/29 ISM Milwaukee 06:00 Feb  50.00   55.22  50.36 -  
                   
  02/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 07:30 Feb  -30.00   -31.80 -34.60 -  
                   
  03/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 06:45 Feb F 51.20   51.30   51.00 -  
                   
  03/01 ISM Manufacturing 07:00 Feb 48.50   49.50 48.20  -  
                   
  03/01 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Jan  0.30%      1.50%   0.10% 0.60%  
                   
  03/02 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 26 Feb -     -4.80%   -4.30% -  
                   
  03/02 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Feb 190K 214K  205K 193K  
                   
  03/02 ISM New York 06:45 Feb  - 53.60  54.60 -  
                   
  03/02 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  03/03 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Feb   -   21.80%   41.60% -  
                   
  03/03 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q F  -2.90% -2.20% -3.00% -  
                   
  03/03 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 27 Feb   270K  278K 272K -  
                   
  03/03 Continuing Claims 05:30 20 Feb   2250K 2257K 2253K 2254K  
                   
  03/03 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Feb F   50.00  49.70 49.80 -  
                   
  03/03 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Feb F  - 50.00  50.10 -  
                   
  03/03 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 28 Feb  - 43.60  44.20 -  
                   
  03/03 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jan F  -   4.70%    4.90% -  
                   
  03/03 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jan F  -   1.70%   1.80% -  
                   
  03/04 Trade Balance 05:30 Jan -$44.00 B -$45.68 B   -$43.36 B -$44.70 B  
                   
  03/04 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Feb 195K 242K   151K 172K  
                   
  03/04 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Feb  4.90% 4.90%    4.90% -  
                   
  03/04 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Feb  0.20%  -0.10%    0.50% -  
                   
  03/04 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Feb  2.50%  2.20%   2.50% -  
                   
  03/04 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Feb   -  9.70%  9.90% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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