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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   98-30 (-06.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   99-26 (-03.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.625%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, March 05, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Edge Higher as Investors Await News on the Trade
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries inching lower across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.7423, 2.0 bps increased from prior closing of 2.7223.

US index futures pointed to a flat open this morning as investors awaited fresh direction with speculation arising that the eight month trade war is near an end. Equities in China posted modest gains overnight even after Premier Li’s annual work report lowered its GDP growth forecast to between 6.00 and 6.50 percent, the weakest in almost three decades. With the trade optimism growing between the US and China, President Trump announced yet another plan to end trade preferences for India and Turkey. The notification he sent to Congress yesterday starts a 60-day countdown to the potential termination of designations which allow duty-free entry of about 2,000 products. Treasuries slid and the dollar strengthened for a fifth day. Elsewhere, WTI crude extended its rally above $57 a barrel this morning.

Both Markit US Service PMI and US Composite PMI fell slightly to 56.00 and 55.50 in February from 56.20 and 55.80 unrevised prior, respectively. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 59.70 in February from 56.70 prior vs. 57.40 consensus. New Home Sales in December rose to 621k from 599k revised prior vs. 600k consensus. Lastly, Monthly Budget Statement from January will be released at 11:00 AM (PT), and Richmond Fed President Barkin will give a speech on “Moving the Needle in Rural Communities” at the Virginia Governor’s Conference on Agricultural Trade in Richmond at 8:30 AM (PT) today.

The curve has bear-flattened with UST 10-Year yield up 2.0 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/04 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.10% -0.60% 0.80% -  
                   
  03/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Feb F 56.20 56.00 56.20 -  
                   
  03/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Feb F - 55.50 55.80 -  
                   
  03/05 New Home Sales 07:00 Dec 600k 621k 657k 599k  
                   
  03/05 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec -8.70% 3.70% 16.90% 9.10%  
                   
  03/05 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jan $10.00b - -$13.50b -  
                   
  03/06 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 1 Mar - - 5.30% -  
                   
  03/06 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Feb 190k - 213k -  
                   
  03/06 Trade Balance 05:30 Dec -$57.90b - -$49.30b -  
                   
  03/06 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  03/07 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Feb - - 18.70% -  
                   
  03/07 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 2 Mar 225k - 225k -  
                   
  03/07 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Feb 1774k - 1805k -  
                   
  03/07 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q F 1.50% - 2.30% 2.20%  
                   
  03/07 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 4Q F 1.70% - 0.90% -  
                   
  03/07 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 3 Mar - - 61.00 -  
                   
  03/08 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Feb 220k - 304k -  
                   
  03/08 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Feb 3.80% - 4.00% -  
                   
  03/08 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Feb 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/08 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Feb - - 3.20% -  
                   
  03/08 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Feb - - 63.20% -  
                   
  03/08 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Jan F - - - -  
                   
  03/08 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Jan - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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