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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-24.5 (+11.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-08.5 (+05)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.625%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, March 07, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower as ECB Announces Stimulus Program
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries rallying across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.6519, 4.15 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.6934.

US stock futures fluctuated early morning as investors digested a dovish turn from the ECB. Its new targeted longer-term refinancing operations stimulus program will start in September which is scheduled to last until March 2021. While their dovish stance underscored concerns over current stage of global economy, it also raised hopes to stimulate the economy by providing low rate loans to European banks. After the announcement of their third stimulus injection since 2014, both European bonds and treasuries advanced on the news. On the trade front, while President Trump is still pressuring US negotiators to reach a deal with China soon, some economists raised concerns that the potential breakthrough might not lead to a full recovery of the economic damages that the trade war has caused. The dollar strengthened for a seventh day and WTI crude climbed this morning.

In the economic calendar today, Initial Jobless Claims printed a stabilized reading of 223k, a slight decline from 226k revised prior vs. 225k consensus. Continuing Claims also fell to 1755k from unrevised prior of 1805k vs. 1772k consensus. Lastly, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort continued to display strength in consumer spending as it came in at 62.10, the highest level since late 2000, vs. 61.00 prior. Fed Governor Brainard will speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook at Princeton University at 9:15 AM (PT) today.

The curve has bull-flattened with UST 10-Year yield down 4.15 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/04 Construction Spending MoM 07:00 Dec 0.10% -0.60% 0.80% -  
                   
  03/05 Markit US Services PMI 06:45 Feb F 56.20 56.00 56.20 -  
                   
  03/05 Markit US Composite PMI 06:45 Feb F - 55.50 55.80 -  
                   
  03/05 New Home Sales 07:00 Dec 600k 621k 657k 599k  
                   
  03/05 New Home Sales MoM 07:00 Dec -8.70% 3.70% 16.90% 9.10%  
                   
  03/05 Monthly Budget Statement 11:00 Jan $10.00b - -$13.50b -  
                   
  03/06 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 1 Mar - -2.50% 5.30% -  
                   
  03/06 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Feb 190k 183k 213k 300k  
                   
  03/06 Trade Balance 05:30 Dec -$57.90b -$59.80b -$49.30b -$50.30b  
                   
  03/06 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 11:00 - - - - -  
                   
  03/07 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Feb - 117.20% 18.70% -  
                   
  03/07 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 2 Mar 225k 223k 225k 226k  
                   
  03/07 Continuing Claims 05:30 23 Feb 1772k 1755k 1805k -  
                   
  03/07 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q F 1.50% 1.90% 2.30% 1.80%  
                   
  03/07 Unit Labor Costs 05:30 4Q F 1.70% 2.00% 0.90% 1.60%  
                   
  03/07 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 3 Mar - 62.10 61.00 -  
                   
  03/08 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Feb 180k - 304k -  
                   
  03/08 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Feb 3.90% - 4.00% -  
                   
  03/08 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Feb 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/08 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Feb - - 3.20% -  
                   
  03/08 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Feb - - 63.20% -  
                   
  03/08 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Jan F - - - -  
                   
  03/08 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Jan - - - -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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