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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-02.5 (-07)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   101-09 (-06)  
 
  Support   2.582%  
 
  Resistance   2.397%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, March 9, 2017
 
 
The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.579% this morning after closing at 2.561% yesterday.

Yesterday, the bond market had a sharp sell-off following better than expected ADP employment data. This morning, the market has continued to sell-off ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payroll numbers for a last confirmation of a rate hike next week. In European markets, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep rates unchanged and continue with its asset purchasing program.

In economic releases, the Import Price Index rose 0.20% in February vs. a 0.60% increase the previous month. In spite of weaker petroleum prices, import prices have steadily increased since February 2016, and have risen for 10 of the past 12 months. The Department of Labor reported Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 4th which spiked to 243K from a 44 year low of 223K the week prior. Claims for those continuing to receive benefits dropped 6K to 2058K for the week ending February 25th. Lastly, Consumer Comfort rose 0.80 to 50.60, the highest level seen in 10 years as more Americans held a positive outlook for the economy and purchasing climate, however, the personal finance index remained nearly unchanged for the week ending March 5th.

The curve has bear-steepened with the UST 10-Year 1.8 bps up from prior closing.

 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/06 Factory Orders 07:00 Jan 1.00% 1.20% 1.30% -  
                   
  03/06 Durable Goods Orders 07:00 Jan F 1.00% 2.00% 1.80% -  
                   
  03/06 Durables Ex Transportation 07:00 Jan F 0.10% 0.00% -0.20% -  
                   
  03/07 Trade Balance 05:30 Jan -$48.50 B -$48.50 B -$44.30 B -  
                   
  03/08 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 3 Mar - 3.30% 5.80% -  
                   
  03/08 ADP Employment Change 05:15 Feb 187 K 298 K 246 K 261 K  
                   
  03/08 Nonfarm Productivity 05:30 4Q F 1.50% 1.30% 1.30% -  
                   
  03/08 Wholesale Inventories MoM 07:00 Jan F -0.10% -0.20% -0.10% -  
                   
  03/08 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 07:00 Jan 0.50% -0.10% 2.60% 2.40%  
                   
  03/09 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 04:30 Feb - -40.00% -38.80% -  
                   
  03/09 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Feb 0.10% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60%  
                   
  03/09 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Feb 4.40% 4.60% 3.70% 3.80%  
                   
  03/09 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 4 Mar 238 K 243 K 223 K -  
                   
  03/09 Continuing Claims 05:30 25 Feb 2062 K 2058 K 2066 K 2064 K  
                   
  03/09 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 5 Mar - 50.60 49.80 -  
                   
  03/10 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 05:30 Feb 200 K - 227 K -  
                   
  03/10 Unemployment Rate 05:30 Feb 4.70% - 4.80% -  
                   
  03/10 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 05:30 Feb 0.30% - 0.10% -  
                   
  03/10 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 05:30 Feb 2.70% - 2.50% -  
                   
  03/10 Labor Force Participation Rate 05:30 Feb - - 62.90% -  
                   
  03/10 Underemployment Rate 05:30 Feb - - 9.40% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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