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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   99-31.5 (+04)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-14 (+02.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.618%  
 
 
 
 
Tuesday, March 12, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower after Core Inflation Unexpectedly Cools
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries slightly edging higher across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.6321, 0.72 bp decreased from prior closing of 2.6393.

US equity futures pointed to a mixed open this morning as Boeing continued to struggle further in premarket after experiencing steep losses yesterday. Even after the Federal Aviation Administration stood by Boeing’s 737 Max jet’s airworthiness, airlines and regulators from Singapore and Australia took a zero-risk approach, and more countries are expected to close its airspace to the model. In the UK, with just 17 days until the country is due to leave the European Union, the British Parliament will vote again tonight after Prime Minister May announced a revised, slightly better Brexit deal. Treasuries advanced on unexpectedly weak inflation reading and WTI crude continued its rally above $57 a barrel due to extended supply cuts from Saudi Arabia.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism saw a modest rebound at 101.70 from 101.20 prior but was still short of consensus of 102.50. Despite of breaking five-month declines, the reading was still weaker than its recent peak of 108.80 from August of last year and it indicated small business had very little capacity to weather the storm from the shutdown. The February CPI came in line with consensus of 0.20% vs. a flat prior reading. The core, however, excluding food and energy, fell to 0.10% from 0.20% prior and consensus, giving the Fed another reason to remain “patient” on its interest rate policy. The US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $24 billion of 10-Year notes at 10:00 AM (PT) today.

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 0.72 bp.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/11 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jan 0.00% 0.20% -1.20% -1.60%  
                   
  03/11 Business Inventories 07:00 Dec 0.60% 0.60% -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  03/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Feb 102.50 101.70 101.20 -  
                   
  03/12 CPI MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% -  
                   
  03/12 CPI YoY 05:30 Feb 1.60% 1.50% 1.60% -  
                   
  03/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Mar - - -2.50% -  
                   
  03/13 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% - -0.10% -  
                   
  03/13 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Feb 1.90% - 2.00% -  
                   
  03/13 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jan P -0.40% - - -  
                   
  03/13 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jan P 0.10% - - -  
                   
  03/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Feb 0.30% - -0.50% -  
                   
  03/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Feb -1.50% - -1.70% -  
                   
  03/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Feb 0.10% - -0.60% -  
                   
  03/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Feb - - -0.20% -  
                   
  03/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Mar 225k - 223k -  
                   
  03/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Mar 1763k - 1755k -  
                   
  03/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Mar - - 62.10 -  
                   
  03/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Mar 10.00 - 8.80 -  
                   
  03/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Feb 0.40% - -0.60% -  
                   
  03/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Feb 78.50% - 78.20% -  
                   
  03/15 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jan 7225 - 7335 -  
                   
  03/15 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar P 95.60 - 93.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as trading or investment advice in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice  
 
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