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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   100-01 (+01)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-16 (+0.5)  
 
  Support   3.237%  
 
  Resistance   2.598%  
 
 
 
 
Thursday, March 14, 2019
 
 
Treasury Yields Lower as Trump-Xi Meeting Gets Delayed
 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries slightly inching higher across all maturities. 10-Year treasury yield is at 2.6105, 1.08 bps decreased from prior closing of 2.6213.

US stock futures fluctuated this morning as a trade meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi to sign an agreement will reportedly be delayed until April at the earliest. Both treasuries and the dollar advanced as well as WTI crude trading above $58 a barrel this morning. In overseas, the UK moved closer to delay Brexit after Parliament rejected leaving the EU without an agreement in place. The EU is open to a delay until May but will require Britain to give a clear reason for pushing back the deadline. In corporate news, Boeing continued to struggle as the FAA joined global regulators in grounding the jet as evidence has emerged, linking the previous crash to the one from last Sunday with the same problems.

In the economic calendar today, Import Price Index in February climbed 0.60% from 0.10% revised prior vs. 0.30% consensus. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 229k from 223k prior vs. 225k and Continuing Claims also rose to 1776k from 1758k revised prior vs. 1763k consensus, stabilizing after a few volatile months due to the government shutdown. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort inched lower to 60.80 from 62.10 and finally, New Home Sales in January also fell to 607k from 652k revised prior vs. 622k consensus. The US Treasury is scheduled to auction off $60 billion of 4-week bills and $35 billion of 8-week bills at 8:30 AM (PT) today.

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 1.08 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/11 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Jan 0.00% 0.20% -1.20% -1.60%  
                   
  03/11 Business Inventories 07:00 Dec 0.60% 0.60% -0.10% 0.00%  
                   
  03/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Feb 102.50 101.70 101.20 -  
                   
  03/12 CPI MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% -  
                   
  03/12 CPI YoY 05:30 Feb 1.60% 1.50% 1.60% -  
                   
  03/13 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 8 Mar - 2.30% -2.50% -  
                   
  03/13 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% 0.10% -0.10% -  
                   
  03/13 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Feb 1.90% 1.90% 2.00% -  
                   
  03/13 Durable Goods Orders 05:30 Jan P -0.40% 0.40% 1.20% 1.30%  
                   
  03/13 Durables Ex Transportation 05:30 Jan P 0.10% -0.10% 0.10% 0.30%  
                   
  03/14 Import Price Index MoM 05:30 Feb 0.30% 0.60% -0.50% 0.10%  
                   
  03/14 Import Price Index YoY 05:30 Feb -1.50% -1.30% -1.70% -1.60%  
                   
  03/14 Export Price Index MoM 05:30 Feb 0.10% 0.60% -0.60% -0.50%  
                   
  03/14 Export Price Index YoY 05:30 Feb - 0.30% -0.20% -  
                   
  03/14 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 9 Mar 225k 229K 223k -  
                   
  03/14 Continuing Claims 05:30 2 Mar 1763k 1776k 1755k 1758k  
                   
  03/14 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 10 Mar - 60.80 62.10 -  
                   
  03/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Mar 10.00 - 8.80 -  
                   
  03/15 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Feb 0.40% - -0.60% -  
                   
  03/15 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Feb 78.50% - 78.20% -  
                   
  03/15 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jan 7225 - 7335 -  
                   
  03/15 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar P 95.70 - 93.80 -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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