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Market Commentary


 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   97-03 (+05)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   100-31 (+03.5)  
 
  Support   2.628%  
 
  Resistance   2.489%  
 
 
 
 
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
 
 
The UST 10-Year yield is at 2.581% this morning after closing at 2.601% yesterday.

U.S. Treasuries continued to rally this morning for the second consecutive day recovering some of the losses after having peeked to their highest level since Sept 2014. Later this morning, the FOMC will announce their rate decision, which is widely anticipated to increase the benchmark interest rate by 0.250%.

In economic news, MBA mortgage applications rose 3.10% for the week ended March 10th after a 3.30% rise the week prior. The average 30-Year fixed interest rate was 4.460% vs. 4.360% the previous week. Empire manufacturing index rose 16.40 as new orders (21.30 vs. 13.50) and number of employees (8.80 vs. 2.00) increased in March, however, inventory and prices paid both saw large decreases for the month. In February, CPI increased 0.10% vs. a 0.60% rise the previous month; excluding volatile food and energy, CPI rose 0.20%. The annual CPI rose 2.70% vs. 2.50% previously, while the core CPI rose to 251.299.

The Commerce Department released retail sales for February reporting the lowest gain in 6 months of 0.10% vs. a 0.60% rise in January. Sales, excluding autos rose only 0.20% vs. a 1.20% increase the previous month. The slowing in the retail sector is believed to be restrained by a temporary slowdown in individual tax refunds as well as steadily rising producer prices.

The curve has bull-flattened with the UST 10-Year 2 bps down from prior closing.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/13 Labor Market Conditions Index Change 07:00 Feb 2.50 - 1.30 -  
                   
  03/14 NFIB Small Business Optimism 03:00 Feb 105.60 105.30 105.90 -  
                   
  03/14 PPI Final Demand MoM 05:30 Feb 0.10% 0.30% 0.60% -  
                   
  03/14 PPI Final Demand YoY 05:30 Feb 1.90% 2.20% 1.60% -  
                   
  03/15 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 10 Mar - 3.10% 3.30% -  
                   
  03/15 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Mar 15.00 16.40 18.70 -  
                   
  03/15 CPI MoM 05:30 Feb 0.00% 0.10% 0.60% -  
                   
  03/15 CPI YoY 05:30 Feb 2.70% 2.70% 2.50% -  
                   
  03/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Feb 0.10% 0.10% 0.40% 0.60%  
                   
  03/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Mar 65.00 71.00 65.00 -  
                   
  03/15 Business Inventories 07:00 Jan 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% -  
                   
  03/15 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 11:00 15 Mar 1.00% - 0.75% -  
                   
  03/15 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 11:00 15 Mar 0.75% - 0.50% -  
                   
  03/16 Housing Starts 05:30 Feb - - 1246 K -  
                   
  03/16 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Feb - - -2.60% -  
                   
  03/16 Building Permits 05:30 Feb - - 1285 K -  
                   
  03/16 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Feb - - 4.60% -  
                   
  03/16 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 11 Mar - - - -  
                   
  03/16 Continuing Claims 05:30 4 Mar - - - -  
                   
  03/16 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Mar - - 43.30 -  
                   
  03/16 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 12 Mar - - - -  
                   
  03/16 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jan - - 5501 -  
                   
  03/17 Industrial Production MoM 06:15 Feb - - -0.30% -  
                   
  03/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Feb - - 75.30% -  
                   
  03/17 U. of Mich. Sentiment 07:00 Mar P - - - -  
                   
  03/17 Leading Index 07:00 Feb - - 0.60% -  
                   
 
 
 
 
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