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Market Commentary



 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   106-10 (-30)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   103-09.5 (-05.5)  
 
  Support   2.612%  
 
  Resistance   0.336%  
 
 
 
 
  Tuesday, March 17, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Climb as Stocks Struggle from Biggest Plunge since 1987

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 0.7716, 5.34 bps increased from prior closing of 0.7182.

Yesterday, the Dow and S&P 500 had their worst day since the Black Monday crash of 1987, falling 12.9% and 12%, respectively. The Cboe volatility index also posted its highest ever close at 82.69. US equity futures swung between gains and losses early in the session as investors struggled to bounce back up from yesterday's loss, and the dollar surged against its peers. The total confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the US now reached 4,661 and 85 deaths. In response to rapidly deteriorating situation, many countries ramped up their quarantine measures and travel restrictions both locally and nationally. Yesterday, President Trump warned of a possible recession as the pandemic could potentially extend into summer. He also advised against gatherings of more than 10 people. Treasuries and gold retreated with WTI crude inching higher toward $29 a barrel this morning.

The headline Retail Sales Advance in February declined to -0.50% vs. 0.20% consensus, and its prior reading of 0.30% was upwardly revised to 0.60%. However, Industrial Production climbed to 0.60% from a downwardly revised prior of -0.50% vs. 0.40% consensus. Capacity Utilization in February came in slightly below consensus of 77.10% at 77.00%, and JOLTS Job Openings in January unexpectedly surged to 6963 from an upwardly revised prior of 6552 vs. 6400 consensus. Lastly, NAHB Housing Market Index in March inched lower to 72 from prior of 74 vs. 73 consensus.

The curve has bear-steepened with UST 10-Year yield up 5.34 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/16 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Mar 3.00 -21.50 12.90 -  
                   
  03/16 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jan - $20.90B $85.60B -  
                   
  03/16 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jan - $122.90B $78.20B $78.70B  
                   
  03/17 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% -0.50% 0.30% 0.60%  
                   
  03/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Feb 77.10% 77.00% 76.80% 76.60%  
                   
  03/17 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jan 6400 6963 6423 6552  
                   
  03/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Mar 73 72 74 -  
                   
  03/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 13 Mar - - 55.40% -  
                   
  03/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Feb 1500k - 1567k -  
                   
  03/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Feb -4.30% - -3.60% -  
                   
  03/18 Building Permits 05:30 Feb 1500k - 1551k 1550k  
                   
  03/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Feb -3.20% - 9.20% -  
                   
  03/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Mar 10.00 - 36.70 -  
                   
  03/19 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 14 Mar 220k - 211k -  
                   
  03/19 Continuing Claims 05:30 7 Mar 1717k - 1698k -  
                   
  03/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 15 Mar - - - -  
                   
  03/19 Leading Index 07:00 Feb 0.40% - -0.30% -  
                   
  03/20 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Feb 5.44m - 5.54m -  
                   
  03/20 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb -1.80% - 3.60% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
 
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