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Market Commentary


 
 
Today's Coupons
 
  10-Year Notes   103-28 (-05.5)  
 
  FN 3.5% Coupon   102-24.5 (-10)  
 
  Support   2.612%  
 
  Resistance   0.336%  
 
 
 
 
  Wednesday, March 18, 2020
 
 

Treasury Yields Climb as Stocks Head for Another Big Loss

 
 
Market opened today’s session with treasuries selling-off across all maturities. 10-Year Treasury yield is at 1.0473, 3.11 bps decreased from prior closing of 1.0784.

Stocks tumbled even after massive responses from governments and central banks yesterday as the perceived economic fallout outweighed those actions. The Fed used another emergency authority yesterday to revive a Commercial Paper Funding Facility from the 2008 crisis to help companies borrow through the commercial paper market. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also warned yesterday that unemployment could reach 20% as he presented stimulus package amounted to $1.2 trillion including direct payments to Americans. Financial markets continued to spasm this morning as the pandemic appeared to be pushing the global economy into recession. Treasuries also tumbled and the dollar strengthened for a seventh straight day. Elsewhere, crude oil sunk to 2003 levels with WTI heading toward $24 a barrel this morning.

MBA mortgage application index fell 8.40% after surging 55.40% in prior week. Both purchases and refinances declined 0.90% and 10.40% after rising 5.60% and 78.60% in prior week, respectively. Housing market, on the other hand, remained strong in February as Housing Starts came in above consensus of 1500k at 1599k. It's prior reading of 1567k was upwardly revised to 1624k. However, Building Permits in February inched down to 1464k from a downwardly revised prior of 1550k vs. 1500k consensus.

The curve has bull-steepened with UST 10-Year yield down 3.11 bps.
 
 
   
 
   
 
This Week's Events
 
 
  DATE EVENT TIME(PT) PERIOD SURVEY ACTUAL PRIOR REVISED  
  03/16 Empire Manufacturing 05:30 Mar 3.00 -21.50 12.90 -  
                   
  03/16 Net Long-term TIC Flows 13:00 Jan - $20.90B $85.60B -  
                   
  03/16 Total Net TIC Flows 13:00 Jan - $122.90B $78.20B $78.70B  
                   
  03/17 Retail Sales Advance MoM 05:30 Feb 0.20% -0.50% 0.30% 0.60%  
                   
  03/17 Capacity Utilization 06:15 Feb 77.10% 77.00% 76.80% 76.60%  
                   
  03/17 JOLTS Job Openings 07:00 Jan 6400 6963 6423 6552  
                   
  03/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 07:00 Mar 73 72 74 -  
                   
  03/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 04:00 13 Mar - -8.40% 55.40% -  
                   
  03/18 Housing Starts 05:30 Feb 1500k 1599k 1567k 1624k  
                   
  03/18 Housing Starts MoM 05:30 Feb -4.30% -1.50% -3.60% 1.40%  
                   
  03/18 Building Permits 05:30 Feb 1500k 1464k 1551k 1550k  
                   
  03/18 Building Permits MoM 05:30 Feb -3.20% -5.50% 9.20% -  
                   
  03/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 05:30 Mar 8.00 - 36.70 -  
                   
  03/19 Initial Jobless Claims 05:30 14 Mar 220k - 211k -  
                   
  03/19 Continuing Claims 05:30 7 Mar 1738k - 1722k -  
                   
  03/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06:45 15 Mar - - 62.70 -  
                   
  03/19 Leading Index 07:00 Feb 0.10% - 0.80% -  
                   
  03/20 Existing Home Sales 07:00 Feb 5.51m - 5.46m -  
                   
  03/20 Existing Home Sales MoM 07:00 Feb 0.90% - -1.30% -
                   
 
 
 
 
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  This information is provided solely for informational use and is not intended as an advice for trading or investment purposes in any manner whatsoever. Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. is not a licensed or registered broker or dealer and cannot provide investment strategies or recommendations. This information is provided to licensed brokers/lenders only and may not be copied or distributed to customers or potential customers. All loans are subject to approval. Certain restrictions may apply. Listed pricing is a morning indication only. Program rates, prices, guidelines, fees, costs, terms and conditions are subject to change without notice.  
 
 
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